From SIR To ED Raids: Why Mamata Banerjee’s Fourth-Term Bid Is Her Toughest Election Yet

The article assesses the West Bengal Assembly polls, focusing on the TMC and BJP contest, anti-incumbency concerns, graft investigations, EC measures, voter deletions, and the pivotal Bhabanipur seat amid a polarised campaign.

The first phase of the West Bengal Assembly polls opens with 152 constituencies voting, and the Trinamool Congress led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is seeking a fourth straight term. The party is under pressure from a strong Bharatiya Janata Party challenge, corruption cases, Election Commission actions, voter deletions, and a polarised campaign that includes a high-stakes fight in Bhabanipur.

The initial round of polling in the West Bengal Assembly election covers 16 districts across north and west Bengal. Constituencies in Murshidabad, Malda, Purba Medinipur, Paschim Medinipur, Paschim Bardhaman and Birbhum vote, along with Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri, Alipurduar, Cooch Behar, North Dinajpur, South Dinajpur, Jhargram, Purulia and Bankura. These areas will shape early trends for both the TMC and the BJP.

West Bengal Assembly polls, TMC-BJP contest and recent electoral record

The TMC enters the West Bengal Assembly polls with strong recent results but a narrower edge. The BJP first gained ground in the state in the 2019 Lok Sabha election by winning 18 of 42 seats, while the TMC took 22. In 2024, the TMC secured 29 Lok Sabha seats, and the BJP finished with 12.

The Assembly picture has been more favourable for Mamata Banerjee so far. In the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections, the TMC won 215 of 294 seats, and the BJP bagged 77. Since then, the TMC has won 20 of 21 bypolls. These figures give the ruling party confidence, even as the BJP deploys central leaders.

The BJP is again positioning itself as the principal Opposition force in the West Bengal Assembly polls. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah are leading a high-intensity campaign across the state. The party hopes to convert its steady vote share into more seats and challenge the TMC’s long rule.

West Bengal Assembly polls, anti-incumbency and graft cases

After 15 years in office, the TMC is dealing with a perception of anti-incumbency in the West Bengal Assembly polls. This mood is strengthened by corruption allegations against several leaders and ministers. Cases relate to school recruitment, the public distribution system, coal and cattle smuggling, and other sectors, with central agencies pursuing multiple investigations.

Since Mamata Banerjee began a third term as Chief Minister in 2021, the CBI, Enforcement Directorate and Income Tax department have escalated probes. Senior ministers Partha Chatterjee and Jyotipriya Mallick were arrested in connection with the teacher recruitment scandal and ration scam. Anubrata Mondol, a heavyweight party leader, was held in a cattle smuggling case.

Fresh scrutiny continues during the West Bengal Assembly polls campaign. The ED and National Investigation Agency have intensified inquiries involving TMC leaders and candidates, including fire minister and Bidhannagar candidate Sujit Bose, food minister and Madhyamgram nominee Rathin Ghosh, Rashbehari candidate Debasish Kumar and Bhagabanpur candidate Manab Kumar Parua. I-PAC, the party’s political consultancy firm, is also under ED scanner in a coal case.

On 19 April, the ED raided the residence of Kolkata Police deputy commissioner (special branch) Shantanu Sinha Biswas. Later, the agency arrested Kolkata-based businessman Joy Kamdar in an alleged land grabbing case. These moves have added to the political tension around the West Bengal Assembly polls, with the TMC claiming misuse of central agencies.

Mamata Banerjee responded at a Tarakeswar rally, signalling a tough stance against the raids. Mamata said, "We are keeping a record of everything." Referring to the ED’s action against Biswas, Mamata added: "Now, they are raiding the house of the person who takes care of my security. Does that mean that they want to kill me?

Mamata continued the statement at the same meeting, linking current events to past attacks. Mamata said: "If by killing me, they think they can win West Bengal, they can try that also. During the CPI(M) reign, they tried to murder me several times, and now all those from the CPI(M) have joined them (BJP)." The TMC leadership insists the graft issue is losing salience with voters.

West Bengal Assembly polls, SIR voter deletions and EC measures

One of the sharpest flashpoints in the West Bengal Assembly polls is the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls. The TMC has opposed the SIR process and associated steps, such as micro observers and checks for "logical discrepancies". The party claims these methods target genuine voters instead of irregular entries.

The TMC accuses the EC of doing a "hachet job" for the BJP through the SIR exercise. According to the ruling party, the adjudication process has unfairly removed large numbers of valid voters. The BJP rejects these allegations and argues that the SIR has removed "fake voters" that the TMC allegedly depended on to stay in power.

The SIR exercise eventually led to the deletion of 27 lakh names from the rolls. In the 2021 Assembly election, the difference between total TMC and BJP votes was 60.62 lakh. By the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, this gap narrowed to 42.43 lakh. The TMC now argues that anger over deletions may actually strengthen its position.

A senior TMC leader said the SIR fallout could hurt the BJP in the West Bengal Assembly polls. The leader said, "The deleted voters' relatives would not vote for BJP irrespective of their religion or caste. The SIR will boomerang on BJP. The manner in which CM Mamata Banerjee pleaded the SIR case for common people in the Supreme Court has made history. Do you think people will forget that?"

Alongside the voter list dispute, the EC has carried out a wide administrative reshuffle ahead of the West Bengal Assembly polls. Since announcing the schedule on 15 March, the EC has transferred more than 500 officials and police officers at different levels. The changes include senior bureaucrats and returning officers in politically sensitive constituencies.

On the night of 15 March itself, the EC moved chief secretary Nandini Chakraborty and home secretary Jagdish Prasad Meena. The next day, the DGP and Kolkata Police commissioner were removed, along with other senior officers. On 26 March, the poll body shifted 73 returning officers, including those in Nandigram and Bhabanipur, two high-profile seats.

Mamata Banerjee has criticised this reshuffle during the West Bengal Assembly polls, calling the transfers a "deliberate design to seize control of Bengal". The BJP, in contrast, has welcomed the EC’s decisions, saying such measures are needed to ensure a free and fair election. Both sides are using the changes to sharpen their narratives.

West Bengal Assembly polls, polarisation and Muslim vote

Religious polarisation remains a central factor in the West Bengal Assembly polls. A senior BJP leader outlined the party’s strategy, saying, "Our vote share since 2019, when we did well in Bengal, and in 2021 and 2024. when we performed moderately, has been almost the same. We understand that we will not get Muslim votes. But if we get a larger Hindu vote share, we can try and reach the magic figure of a majority (153 seats)."

The Muslim community makes up around 30% of West Bengal’s population and has mostly supported the TMC since 2011, when Mamata Banerjee ended the Left Front’s 34-year rule. In the current West Bengal Assembly polls, the TMC is trying to hold this backing. Sections of the community, however, reportedly express dissatisfaction over issues like the OBC list and Waqf law implementation.

Other Opposition parties are also competing for Muslim voters during the West Bengal Assembly polls. The Congress, ISF, AJUP and AIMIM are seeking to expand their support bases. Any shift of Muslim votes away from the TMC could benefit the BJP indirectly, by splitting the anti-BJP vote in several constituencies across the state.

Mamata Banerjee faces another crucial battle in Bhabanipur, her own seat in south Kolkata, during the West Bengal Assembly polls. The BJP has fielded Leader of the Opposition Suvendu Adhikari there, while Suvendu Adhikari also contests again from Nandigram, where Suvendu Adhikari defeated Mamata Banerjee by a narrow margin in 2021. Bhabanipur thus becomes a symbolic and numerical test.

The electoral roll in Bhabanipur has seen large changes before the West Bengal Assembly polls. About 51,000 voters, or 21% of the electorate, have been deleted. Mamata Banerjee had won the 2021 bypoll from Bhabanipur by a margin of about 58,800 votes. The deletions create added political pressure on the TMC chief in her home seat.

Voting in Bhabanipur takes place in the second phase on 29 April, and Mamata Banerjee plans to devote significant time there. Mamata Banerjee is expected to hold meetings with TMC workers and carry out ground-level canvassing in the constituency. Such direct campaigning would mark a departure from earlier elections in Bhabanipur, where she had not followed this style.

As the West Bengal Assembly polls begin, the TMC enters with electoral strength but several tests. Anti-incumbency, corruption probes, EC-led voter deletions, large-scale transfers, religious polarisation and a high-profile Bhabanipur contest all shape the contest with the BJP. The results will show whether Mamata Banerjee’s party can secure a fourth straight term despite these overlapping challenges.