Will Omicron-driven Covid third wave hit India by February? Experts weigh in

New Delhi, Dec 11: With Omicron, the new variant of SARS-CoV2 cases steadily increasing in India, there is growing apprehension the third wave of coronavirus that could hit India.

Manindra Agarwal, IIT scientist involved in the mathematical projection of trajectory of COVID-19 has said that the third wave of coronavirus could hit the peak by February with cases likely to be reaching up to 1-1.5 lakh a day in the country, but it will be milder than the second wave.

"With the new variant, our current forecast is that the country could see the third wave by February but it will be milder than the second wave. So far we have seen that the severity of Omicron is not like the one seen in the Delta variant," Agarwal told PTI.

Asked about the possibility of a third wave hitting the country in February or March next year, Rakesh Mishra,Director, Tata Institute for Genetics and Society (TIGS), Bangalore said that waves can happen even without a new variant, he said.

The country has the advantage of a heavy rate of infection from the second wave, Mishra said.

Even if the number of cases increase, he said he does not see the possibility of increased hospitalisations and problems of oxygen arising.

In the same breath, the former official of CCMB emphasized on COVID-appropriate behaviour, including avoiding exposure in closed spaces, and vaccination.

He warned of a mild wave if there is laxity in following the safety norms.

Noting that new variants are bound to emerge, he said the general tendency is that newer variants should be milder and more infectious.

However, it is possible that an unexpected bad variant may emerge.

Not wearing masks and not taking vaccination would help the virus grow which would be harmful to people with weak immunity or the unvaccinated people, Mishra said.

On November 26, the World Health Organisation (WHO) named the Covid-19 virus variant detected in South Africa and some other countries as Omicron.

The WHO has also classified the Omicron variant as a 'Variant of Concern'.

with PTI inputs