Karnataka poll: Why the swing & undecided voter could decide outcome

The race to Vidhan Soudha is heating up in the already scorching summer in Karnataka.

While all parties have their reserve vote bank, the interesting thing to look out for would be the undecided and swing voters. The BJP is confident that it would bag the Lingayat votes in large numbers. The Congress and Janata Dal (S) would on the other hand rely heavily on the Vokkaliga and Muslim votes.

According to experts OneIndia spoke with, the undecided voters are the ones who will make all the difference. This is what the parties would be targeting in the elections to be held on May 10.

Data from the past elections show that the swing vote for the BJP and Congress has been 1 per cent each. Swing voters are important for any party and they are often referred as a silent majority. The votes could swing in any direction and these could be on issues such as anti-incumbency, leadership, corruption or money power. Issues such as the reservation for the Vokkaligas and Lingayats could also be a factor for a voter to change his mind.

These voters are found highest in the Old Mysuru Region and also among the Muslim women voters in Northern Karnataka. In all the data shows that on an average, the undecided voter in Karnataka is 12 per cent.

In addition to these voters, the first timers are also in demand in Karnataka. There has been a focus on those who have turned 18 this year. Most internal surveys by the political parties have found that those who have just turned 18 have no party affiliation and hence would be easy to influence. The interesting part is that these voters in Karnataka form 3 per cent of the electorate.

In the 2018 elections when no party was able to secure a majority, the winning margin was less than 3,000 in 26 assembly seats. In six segments, the winning majority was less than a 1,000. The experts who have crunched the numbers say that in all these constituencies the consolidation of the first-time and undecided voters could have titled the fortunes of the contestants.

All parties in the state are aware that no party can win a simple majority unless they are supported by young and undecided voters.

The focus on the first timers is also high this time as the number has risen to 20 lakh. In 2013, the number of first time voters was at 7.2 lakh and it shot up to 15.5 lakh in the 2018 elections. Psephologists say that had the Congress and BJP managed to converted the support of the young and undecided voters in the 2018 elections, either of the parties would have ended up with a simple majority.

The BJP this time is going all it can to draw support of the young voters. It's had launched a voter enrolment drive and appointed 'Panch Pramukhs' to get in touch with the voters.