Why the KHAM theory is likely to fail in Gujarat

Madhav Singh Solanki, served as Gujarat's chief minister during the Emergency first winning 141 seats out of the total of 182 in the 1980 assembly election and then with a record 149 seats.

Will the revival of KHAM (Kshatriya Adivasi, Harijan, Muslims) help the Congress revive its fortunes in the Gujarat assembly elections 2017? The BJP has accused the Congress of working caste factors instead of focusing on the development agenda.

The question is whether KHAM or caste politics will work in Gujarat? Let us take a look.

• The BJP is more popular in urban areas. Of its 64-seats in 2012, the Congress won 61 in rural areas.
• In 2015 local body elections, the BJP swept the cities and town.
• It won in Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara, Rajkot, Jamnagar and Bhavnagar.
• However, the Congress won 21 of the 31 zila panchayats and 110 of 230 taluka panchayats.

Is caste a workable factor in Gujarat?

• Except Dalits, Muslims and a smattering of voters from all other castes, the 30-35% vote share that Congress has had in the past few years has no fixed template.
• Gujarat is not UP where clearly there are distinctive voting patterns among different castes. There is no such caste template in Gujarat. Voters across castes have been unified by their business interests
• With around 50% electorate comprising OBCs and Patels, it is important to note that SC has already said that quota cannot exceed 50% and hence one is pitted over the other

Why KHAM won't work in 2017:

• Kshatriyas: Vaghela is allready out of Congress party and has formed his own Jan Vikalp Party which will fight on all 182 assembly seats.
• Harijans-Adivasis: The BJP government in Gujarat has given special emphasis to both Harijans and Adivasis. Hence the party feels that they chose them over the Congress without much thought.
• Muslims : Muslim are the only community largely voting for the Congress. However, here too clear signs of change are emerging. Muslim community leaders, youngsters and educated people are queuing up for BJP's tickets in many assembly segments.

The Patidars:

• Madhav Singh Solanki, served as Gujarat's chief minister during the Emergency first winning 141 seats out of the total of 182 in the 1980 assembly election and then with a record 149 seats. Solanki it may recalled had given a ticket to only one Patidar.

In 2012, Keshubhai Patel had floated the Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP), largely a Patidar outfit, which won 3.7 per cent of the votes and only two Assembly seats but damaged the Congress in over a dozen other seats by splitting anti-BJP votes, and helping the BJP gain.
Vaghela's party would impact Congress vote share in at least 35 of the 182-seats where votes from minority communities can impact the result.

OneIndia News