Why Karnataka polls could be a do-or-die battle for Congress

Karnataka heading fast towards the May 10 polls. In this election, the stakes are high for both the ruling BJP and the main opposition party Congress for their own reasons, but JDS in the past has proven to be a crucial cog in the political wheel.

The vigour of the campaigning notwithstanding, Karnataka is heading for a hung Assembly, according to various opinion polls. While many pollsters predicted that Congress will emerge as the single largest party, it will be short of majority figures in the 224-seat House.

The trend hints that JDS could play the role of a kingmaker this time too. So, it is not wrong to say that Congress, known as the oldest party in the country, is facing a do-or-die battle in this election.

A win in Karnataka is crucial for the Congress after back-to-back debacles in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections and humiliating defeats in a series of Assembly elections in different parts of the country over the last 10 years.

After its good show in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in 2018, the Congress is yet to register a victory in a major State. Though Congress performed very well in the 3 States, its government in Madhya Pradesh collapsed within a year due to a rebellion led by Jyotiraditya Scindia, who is now a Union minister in BJP government at the Centre.

Rajasthan is just hanging by a hair amid a fierce battle between party veteran and chief minister Ashok Gehlot and young leader Sachin Pilot. Pilot's rebellion is the biggest concern for the Congress ahead of the crucial Assembly polls in the State to be held later this year.

Moreover, Congress lost its last big bastion Punjab after the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) did the impossible task of defeating the grand old party on its own turf last year.

In 2023, the Congress could not even manage a comeback in Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland. The only State Congress was able to win was the tiny Himachal Pradesh, which looked like a consolation prize, coming after a number of humiliating defeats.

So practically, retaining Karnataka is critical for Congress in view of the elections in four major states - Telangana, MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh (besides Mizoram) - scheduled later this year. The party is not sure to win any of them.

A win in Karnataka would certainly come as a morale booster for the Congress, which is facing the gravest existential crisis ever. The Karnataka Assembly election results will also set the tone to some extend for the Lok Sabha polls slated for the next year.

Amid talks of a united Opposition, there is no clarity on who will lead such a front. The chances are fading for the Congress with some of the regional outfits like the Trinamool Congress, Bharat Rashtra Congress and AAP, who have performed well in their respective States, declaring that they are ready to face the general elections without Congress.

A win in Karnataka will offer Congress a chance to re-establish its position as the main opposition party in the country ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. There are also talks of a third front, an alliance of regional parties looking to take on the BJP in 2024. Congress does not figure anywhere in this scheme.

A defeat in Karnataka will be a grave setback for the Congress ahead of the Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP) elections which are getting postponed for the last three years. A good performance in the State polls will impact the civic election too.