What ails Karnataka parties & the need for a social composition

The ruling BJP has multiple factors on hand as it fights the tough battle in Karnataka.

The Election Commission of India (ECI) on Wednesday announced that polling in Karnataka will be held on May 10, while counting would take place on May 13.

The BJP's problem has been that it has never been able to get a majority despite it being the single largest party in 2004, 2008 and 2013. In 2006, it formed the government with the JD(S), but as the junior partner. In 2008, it rode the sympathy wave after being denied the post of chief minister and ended up as the largest party. The party however took the support of independents to form the government.

The case was similar in 2018, when it emerged as the single largest party. The JD(S) and Congress formed the government, but a year later, several rebels defected which eventually led to the BJP coming to power.

There has however been a stark difference in the way the BJP has performed in the assembly elections and Lok Sabha polls. In both the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had a comfortable majority in the 28 constituencies. However this has largely to do with the Narendra Modi factor. A poll survey conducted post the 2014 Lok Sabha elections revealed that 4 of 5 persons voted for the BJP only because of the Modi factor. The state however votes differently in the assembly segment. The votes have been mostly drawn from caste lines and the BJP thrives among the Lingayats, while the other dominant caste, the Vokkaligas side more with the JD(S) and Congress. This explains why the BJP always falls short of the majority mark in Karnataka.

The Congress:

The Congress on the other hand is the only party in Karnataka which has a pan-state reach. The party has more or less enjoyed a 35 per cent vote share in the state. This means that the party has always been in a striking distance of forming the government.

After an impressive performance in 2013, the Congress came second in the 2018 elections in which the BJP emerged as the largest party. The apt finished first or second in 190 constituencies in the state which has 224 seats. It came second in 112 assembly constituencies. In 21 seats, the contest was a close one with the Congress just losing by a victory margin of 2.5 per cent or less.

The JD(S):

The JD(S) is trying to make inroads this time and is focusing heavily on regions other than the Old-Mysuru Region. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, it entered into a failed agreement with the Congress and contested the elections together. The BJP however ended up winning 26 of the 28 seats and this led to a fall out between the Congress and JD(S).

For the JD(S) a lot would depend on how the Congress and BJP perform in its stronghold of Old Mysuru. If the BJP and Congress manage to eat into its vote share in this region, then the JD(S) would be in trouble. The plan to kingmaker with 36 to 41 seats would fall flat. However the experts say that if the JD(S) manages to hit the 36 mark, it would hurt both national parties, which would have to eventually rely on the JD(S) to form the government.

Winning over the other groups:

While the Lingayats and Vokkaligas make up for 17 and 14 per cent of the population, the other groups too have a strong presence. The Other Backward Classes (OBCs) make up for half the population, 30 per cent are the Scheduled Castes and Schedule Tribes, while 10 per cent of the population are the Muslims.

No party has managed to form a social composition involving all these voters. Parties have predominantly relied on the votes of the Lingayats, Vokkaligas or Muslims. Gone are the days of Devraj Urs when the the Congress was invincible in the state. He had forged a composition that involved, Dalits, minorities and backward classes, referred to as Ahinda. The Congress did try to replicate this in the 2018 elections, but it failed.

This time around the BJP is however trying to create a social composition and had in a recent Cabinet decision tweaked the reservation policy.