West Bengal Exit Poll: When Will The Survey Reports & Predictions Be Released Online?

The article examines West Bengal's final electoral phase, emphasising the south Bengal belt's centrality to power in Nabanna, Bhabanipur's prestige contest, voter-list revisions, and campaign strategies by the TMC and BJP in key districts.

West Bengal enters the second and final phase of the assembly elections on April 30, with 142 constituencies voting across the southern belt. Voters will decide whether the Trinamool Congress keeps control of this long-held stronghold or the BJP finally secures a direct route to the state secretariat, Nabanna.

The first phase on April 23 largely examined whether the BJP could keep its traditional strength in north Bengal and nearby districts. The concluding phase now moves the contest to the TMC’s political base, covering Kolkata, Howrah, North and South 24 Parganas, Nadia, Hooghly and Purba Bardhaman.

West Bengal assembly elections, south Bengal stakes and Nabanna route

The numbers underline the stakes. Of the 142 seats voting, the TMC secured 123 in 2021, the BJP 18 and the ISF one. That result confirmed a familiar lesson for Bengal politics: without breaking south Bengal, no party can realistically hope to reach Nabanna and control the state government.

The geography explains this urgency. North 24 Parganas alone sends 33 MLAs, South 24 Parganas 31, Howrah 16, Nadia 17, Hooghly 18 and Purba Bardhaman 16. Kolkata contributes 11 seats that carry high symbolic value, as they include the state capital and many high-profile political figures.

Political workers often describe North and South 24 Parganas as the "Uttar Pradesh of Bengal's electoral map". The twin districts hold enough seats to build or break any majority. For both the TMC and the BJP, dominating this stretch is essential to shape power equations at Nabanna for the next term.

The 2021 results reflect the scale of the TMC’s earlier advantage here. The party swept all 11 Kolkata seats and all 16 in Howrah. It also won 30 of 31 in South 24 Parganas, 28 of 33 in North 24 Parganas, 14 of 18 in Hooghly and eight of 17 in Nadia.

The BJP’s main inroads that year came from North 24 Parganas and Nadia. These gains were driven by Matua and refugee support, the debate over citizenship laws, and anger against the government in some pockets. That arithmetic has shaped the party’s present campaign focus in the second phase.

During the final stretch of canvassing, most top BJP leaders spent their time almost entirely in these districts. Rallies and roadshows combined criticism over alleged corruption, infiltration, post-poll violence and concerns about women’s safety with outreach events at the Matua Thakurbari in Bongaon, a key site for Matua voters.

The ruling TMC has countered with emphasis on welfare schemes and identity politics, presenting the election as a defence of "Bengal's rights". Party leaders have warned that the BJP’s long-term plan involves "NRC and social division", seeking to rally minority, refugee and poorer voters behind Mamata Banerjee.

At the heart of this phase lies Bhabanipur, viewed as a prestige battlefield far beyond its size. It is Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s political base and the BJP’s chosen psychological front, where Banerjee faces Leader of Opposition Suvendu Adhikari in what local observers call the "mother of all electoral contests".

The seat effectively stages a delayed rematch of Nandigram, where Adhikari defeated Banerjee in 2021. Five years later, the confrontation has moved to Bhabanipur, long seen as Banerjee’s safest home ground. For the TMC, keeping this constituency is central to protecting Banerjee’s authority on familiar territory.

For the BJP, winning Bhabanipur would challenge Banerjee’s image as Bengal’s most dominant leader and energise party workers across the state. The constituency covers eight Kolkata Municipal Corporation wards and is often described as "mini India", with Bengalis, Gujaratis, Marwaris, Jains, Sikhs, Muslims and migrants from Bihar and Jharkhand sharing dense neighbourhoods.

Bengal Exit Polls

The Election Commission has imposed a strict silence period ahead of Phase 2 of the West Bengal Assembly elections on April 29. During this time, all media outlets are barred from airing or publishing election-related content, including opinion polls or discussions that could sway voters.

The Commission has also specifically prohibited the release of opinion polls during this period. Violations may lead to punishment such as imprisonment for up to two years, a fine, or both.

Exit poll results for West Bengal, as well as Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry, will be announced after 6:30 pm on April 29.

Netizens can get the survey reports and predictions online, once voting concludes and the mandated silence period comes to an end.

With inputs from PTI