Today’s Chanakya Exit Poll Predicts BJP Surge In Assam, DMK Lead In Tamil Nadu, UDF Edge In Kerala

Today's Chanakya exit poll for the 2026 Assembly elections has projected clear leads in three key states, with the BJP-led alliance far ahead in Assam, the DMK-led alliance leading in Tamil Nadu, and the Congress-led UDF narrowly ahead in Kerala. The pollster released its projections in phases on Thursday evening, offering one of the most closely watched final snapshots before counting begins on May 4.

Assam numbers show BJP far ahead of Congress alliance

In Assam, Today's Chanakya has predicted a big win for the BJP-led alliance in the 126-seat Assembly.

According to the exit poll:

• BJP-led alliance (BJP+): 102 seats (±9)
• Congress-led alliance (Cong+): 23 seats (±9)
• Others: 1 seat

This means the BJP-led alliance is projected to be well above the majority mark and far ahead of the opposition.

The vote share numbers also show a strong gap between the two sides:

• BJP+: 50% votes (±3%)
• Cong+: 38% votes (±3%)
• Others: 12% votes (±3%)

In simple terms, Today's Chanakya is showing Assam as the clearest result among the three states, with the BJP alliance expected to win by a large margin.

Kerala projection shows a close fight, but UDF is slightly ahead

In Kerala, Today's Chanakya has projected a tight contest between the Congress-led UDF and the ruling LDF, but with the UDF just ahead in the 140-seat Assembly.

The seat projection is:

• UDF: 69 seats (±9)
• LDF: 64 seats (±9)
• NDA: 7 seats (±4)
• Others: 0-1 seat

This means the UDF is shown ahead by 5 seats in the basic projection, but Kerala remains a much closer race than Assam.

The vote share estimate is also close:

• UDF: 40% votes (±3%)
• LDF: 38% votes (±3%)
• BJP+ / NDA: 20% votes (±3%)
• Others: 2% votes (±1%)

So, while Today's Chanakya gives the UDF an edge, the Kerala contest is still projected to be competitive, with only a small gap between the top two alliances.

Tamil Nadu poll puts DMK-led alliance in front, TVK gets big debut number

In Tamil Nadu, Today's Chanakya has projected the DMK-led alliance in the lead and indicated that Chief Minister MK Stalin could return to power.

The seat projection for the 234-seat Assembly is:

• DMK-led alliance: 125 seats (±11)
• AIADMK-led alliance: 45 seats (±11)
• TVK: 63 seats (±11)
• Others: 1 seat

The most important number here is that the DMK-led alliance is projected at 125 seats, which puts it in front of all rivals and enough to stay ahead in the race for power.

At the same time, TVK's 63-seat projection makes it one of the biggest talking points in the state. While Today's Chanakya still places the DMK bloc clearly ahead, it also shows Vijay's party making a very strong debut.

Put simply:

• DMK bloc is projected to win the most seats
• AIADMK bloc is a distant second
• TVK is projected to make a major entry with 63 seats
• Today's Chanakya release timings and what the poll suggests overall

Today's Chanakya released its exit poll in phases on Thursday with the following schedule:

• Assam: 5:30 pm
• Kerala: 5:45 pm
• Tamil Nadu: 6:00 pm
• West Bengal: 6:30 pm

By Thursday evening, the pollster's projections showed three clear takeaways:

• Assam: BJP-led alliance projected to win 102 seats, a dominant lead
• Kerala: UDF projected at 69 seats, only slightly ahead of LDF's 64
• Tamil Nadu: DMK-led alliance projected at 125 seats, ahead of AIADMK bloc and TVK

Overall, Today's Chanakya exit poll paints three very different pictures:

• A landslide-style BJP advantage in Assam
• A narrow UDF edge in Kerala
• A DMK-led alliance lead in Tamil Nadu, with TVK emerging strongly

The final result, however, will only be known when votes are counted on May 4.