These four states will decide BJP’s fate in 2019 LS polls
New Delhi, Apr 16: All pre-poll surveys suggest that the National Democratic Alliance is ahead, but the question is will the BJP manage a majority on its own.
To analyse the elections, OneIndia caught up with leading political scientist, Dr. Sandeep Shastri.
Our pre-poll survey that was published a week ago suggests that the NDA has its nose ahead in the race, while the BJP does not cross the half-way mark.
I would argue at the end of the day that four states are very crucial for the BJP. Will the party be able to repeat its performance in Uttar Pradesh? This is a crucial state for the party, which it had won with extremely impressive numbers the last time.
The second state would be Karnataka. It is important for the party to do well here and it is to be seen whether it can perform better when compared to 2014.
In West Bengal, it is clear that the BJP is the second largest player. Is the push enough to allow it to enter double digits and also create a challenge for the TMC.
The states of Rajasthan and MP are also very crucial for the BJP. In Rajasthan the BJP had swept the elections in 2014 and in MP, it won all but two. The BJP in my view would continue to do well in these states, but the million dollar question is will there be a sweep like last time.
The Congress in my view is picking up several seats and during the campaign if it is further strengthened, the BJP according to me will lose ground.
Speaking of Tamil Nadu, the verdict would clearly be in favour of the DMK-Congress. However according to me, the AIADMK-BJP alliance will not be wiped out. I would like to add that the direction that the AIADMK is going in is downwards.
On the other hand, Stalin is taking forward the Karunanidhi legacy. In the case of the AIADMK, there is no inheritor for Jayalalithaa. Moreover the party has a strikingly corrupt impression. The track record of the government is not positive and the BJP went into this alliance not by choice, but necessity.