Sumalatha all set to join BJP: What impact will it have on party?

No doubt she would eat into the JDS vote bank in the region and reduce its winning margin. And this is precisely the strategy the BJP has behind fielding her in Mandya.

As the Karnataka Assembly elections are around the corner, rumours are rife that Mandya MP Sumalatha Ambareesh, who was as an independent candidate in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, will in all likelihood join the ruling BJP soon.

In this regard, Sumalatha had even met former Chief Minister S.M. Krishna at the latter's residence in Bengaluru and held a discussion. She also held a meeting with her close associates at her residence in the city on Monday. It is important to note that in the past two months, several close aides of Sumalatha have joined the saffron party.

BJP bid to make inroads in Old Mysuru region

BJP seems determined to return to power on its own steam and is trying hard to get the backing of Vokkaliga, a dominant land-owning community, who have always stood firmly behind former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda-led Janata Dal-Secular (JDS).

Aiming to win maximum number of seats in Old Mysuru region, of which Mandya is a significant part, the BJP has been making efforts to woo Sumalatha into the party. Some of top BJP leaders and even ministers have openly invited her to the party and have indicated that talks are going on with her, as reported by PTI.

It is to be noted that the saffron party, which won as many as 25 of 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka in 2019, does not have a strong presence in Mandya district. It is precisely for this reason the saffron party backed Sumalatha's candidacy and ensured her victory even as some other parties backed her as well. The BJP threw its heft behind her as it wanted to defeat the JDS-Congress coalition candidate Nikhil, son of H.D. Kumaraswamy.

Sumalatha had initially sought a ticket from Congress, the party which her late husband Ambareesh had represented Mandya in the past. But Congress refused to oblige citing coalition compulsions as it had to cede the constituency to JDS as per the seat-sharing arrangement. Congress and JDS were in alliance then and there was a coalition government in Karnataka.

She later declared her candidature as an Independent, a move that irked Kumaraswamy and the JDS leadership, who were once close to Ambareesh. They saw her as a threat for them in their own backyard.

Will her joining impact BJP?

Since her election, Sumalatha has been seen as an influential figure in Karnataka politics. Her victory in the Mandya constituency, which has historically been a stronghold of JDS, was seen as a major upset. Her support base, which includes a significant number of Kannada-speaking voters, has given her a certain amount of political clout in the State.

However, it is difficult to assess the impact of Sumalatha on the BJP. No doubt, her candidacy in Mandya would eat into the votes of JDS. This will reduce the margin of winnability for JDS. And this is precisely the strategy that the BJP has adopted. Her association with the party during the 2019 election was primarily due to the fact that the BJP did not field its own candidate in Mandya and instead decided to support her.

Overall, while Sumalatha's victory in the Mandya constituency may have provided a boost to the BJP and other parties that supported her candidacy, her impact on the BJP as a party is likely to be limited.

Her late actor-turned-politician husband M.H. Ambareesh was a Congress leader and had represented Mandya both in Assembly and Lok Sabha. He was also a minister, both in the State and at the Centre. He enjoyed a massive fan following in the district and locals lovingly called him 'Mandyada Gandu' (the man of Mandya).

During the 2018 Assembly elections, JDS candidates won all seven seats in the region. Congress, its arch-rival, is considerably strong here while the BJP is weak. The saffron party, which is trying to make inroads into the district, had managed to win KR Pet Assembly seat in the 2019 bypolls as MLA Narayana Gowda defected from JDS and joined its ranks. He is now a minister in the incumbent Basavaraj Bommai government.