Southwest monsoon in India to be normal, predicts IMD

New Delhi, Apr 14: India is likely to witness normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season this year, the India Meteorological Department said on Thursday. Rainfall will be 96 per cent to 104 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm of the 1971-2020 period, it noted.

The rainfall will be 99 per cent of the long period average (LPA), the average rainfall recorded during the months from June to September, calculated during the 50-year period.

At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present over the Indian Ocean and the latest MMCFS forecast indicates that the neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue until the beginning of southwest monsoon season. Thereafter, the enhanced probability for negative IOD condition is predicted," the weather department said in a release.

Earlier, the IMD used to consider the LPA of 88cm of the 1961-2010 period. "All-India rainfall normal based on 1971-2020 (period) for the southwest monsoon season is 868.6 mm. It will replace the normal of 880.6mm based on 1961-2010," it said.

Normal to above-normal rainfall is most likely over many areas in the northern part of peninsular India, central India, along the foothills of the Himalayas and some parts of northwest India.

Below normal rainfall is likely over many parts of northeast India, some parts of northwest India and southern parts of the southern peninsula.

In 2021, the country received "normal" rainfall during the four-month southwest monsoon season from June to September. It was the third consecutive year that the country recorded rainfall in the normal or above-normal category. Rainfall was above normal in 2019 and 2020.