Shakti Cyclone: IMD Denies Formation of Storm in Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea as Monsoon Sets In

Shakti Cyclone Live Tracking: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed the arrival of the southwest monsoon, signaling the start of India's annual rainy season. Early progress of the monsoon has been observed over the south Bay of Bengal, Nicobar Islands, south Andaman Sea, and parts of the north Andaman Sea.

Cyclone Shakti? IMD Denies Speculation

In response to media reports about the formation of 'Cyclone Shakti', the IMD issued a strong denial. The department clarified that no such cyclone has been forecast and expressed concern over misinformation circulating in various media outlets, which has caused public confusion and institutional embarrassment.

The Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for Tropical Cyclones in New Delhi has issued a detailed weather outlook for the North Indian Ocean region that encompasses two major subregions: the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The bulletin, valid for the next 168 hours (seven days), reports no signs of cyclogenesis - the formation of a depression or cyclone - in either basin during the forecast period.

Bay of Bengal Weather - No Cyclone Expected

On May 14, 2025, an upper air cyclonic circulation persisted over the Andaman Sea, extending up to 3.1 km above mean sea level and tilting southwestwards with height. Another upper air cyclonic circulation was observed over the southwest Bay of Bengal near the Tamil Nadu coast at 1.5 km elevation.

There were clouds in many areas - especially in the southeast Bay of Bengal and around the Andaman Sea - where heavy cloud activity (convection) was seen. Some parts in the central and southwest Bay also had medium to strong cloud activity. Other areas were mostly calm.

Good news: Even with all this cloud activity, there's no chance of a cyclone forming in the Bay of Bengal over the next 7 days.

Arabian Sea Conditions - Also Calm

The Arabian Sea also remains relatively calm from a cyclone formation perspective. Scattered cloud activity with intense to very intense convection was observed off the Karnataka-Kerala coast in the southeast and east-central Arabian Sea. Moderate to intense convection was also present over the south Arabian Sea, including the Lakshadweep Islands, Maldives, and the Comorin area.

However, as in the Bay of Bengal, the RSMC forecasts a nil probability for cyclonic development throughout the forecast period.

No Immediate Threat

The absence of cyclonic activity in both basins is significant, especially as the region enters a time of year when pre-monsoon cyclones are not uncommon. The consistent forecast of "nil" probability over all 24-hour blocks up to 168 hours (7 Days) offers reassurance to coastal communities and maritime operations.