Rajya Sabha Bypolls: BJP Set To Bag 11 Out Of 12 RS Seats - How Numbers Stack Up?

The elections to 12 vacant Rajya Sabha seats in nine states will be held on September 3. These polls arose as ten members, including Union ministers Piyush Goyal, Sarbananda Sonowal, and Jyotiraditya Scindia, were elected to the Lok Sabha. Also, bypolls are scheduled for two seats in Telangana and Odisha.

K Keshava Rao from Telangana resigned from the Rajya Sabha after leaving the BRS to join the Congress, while BJD MP Mamata Mohanta stepped down from her seat and the party.

The Number Game

For the BJP, these by-elections are important as they aim to push the NDA past the majority mark in the Rajya Sabha, a critical factor for the passage of key legislation. Currently, the NDA holds the support of 110 MPs, including six unaligned nominated members and an independent from Haryana. This number is expected to rise to 121 after the scrutiny of nomination papers, as all candidates fielded by various parties are likely to be elected.

The BJP-led NDA is poised to secure 11 out of the 12 seats in these bypolls, bringing it closer to a majority in the Upper House. The remaining seat is expected to go to the Congress in Telangana, where senior lawyer Abhishek Singhvi is the party's candidate. The NDA's allies, the NCP and RLM, are also expected to secure one seat each.

Once the government fills the four remaining vacancies in the nominated category, the NDA's support base could further increase to 125 members, surpassing the majority mark in a fully constituted House of 245 members. Currently, two of the eight nominated MPs have already joined the BJP, while the others support the government.

In short, the BJP will hold 96 seats in the Upper House after the by-polls, while the Congress will have 27. It is followed by the TMC with 13 seats, the AAP and DMK with 10 seats each, and the RJD with 5 seats. The INDIA bloc has a total of 88 MPs.

The BJD, which used to strategically support the NDA, might support the INDIA block to corner the government in key issues after being defeated by the BJP in the assembly polls in June. The opposiiton parties have the support of the lone BSP member.

However, key non-aligned parties such as YSR Congress (11 MPs), AIADMK (4 MPs), and BRS (4 MPs) tend to lean towards the government.

Overall, the upcoming bypolls could significantly bolster the NDA's standing in the Upper House, giving the ruling party a much-needed edge.