RaGa and the Gujarat Ke Ladke

Rahul Gandhi, or for that matter, the Congress party's strategy in poll-bound Gujarat has left many people baffled. The strategy, which was confusing at its best is now looking down right contradictory.

While there is no doubt that the Nehru-Gandhi scion is devoting ample time and effort towards the campaign, his basic politics is raising too many questions now. From statements like 'the wind has changed this time' to 'even if Congress doesn't form the govt, Rahul is still a winner', the lack of confidence in the Congress Vice President's capability to ensure victory is already visible everywhere.

Of the many questions raised on the Congress strategy, the first of course is, why so much of stress on the Gujarat ke ladke, the Hardik, Jignesh, Alpesh trio? This being the first assembly poll in Gujarat after Narendra Modi moved to Delhi, it is natural that the opposition should exploit the anti-incumbency sentiment to the fullest. With complaints over demonetization and GST coming as an added bonus, it was also quite expected that Rahul's campaign would focus on these issues particularly in a state where trading has been the mainstay of the people for centuries.

If anti-incumbency of over two decades, woes of demonetisationand complaints over GST were the issues which the Congress campaign managers wanted to go to war with, it is even more baffling why the Congress leadership is going all out to woo young leaders like Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mewani who clearly stand for identity politics of their respective castes and nothing else? Ditto with Hardik Patel whose sole stress is on the interests of Patidars and nothing else. But contradiction has been an element of Rahul Gandhi's politics for last several years. From tearing up of the legislation moved by his own Prime Minister to standing solidly behind the Yadav ruling families of both Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, he has often gone ahead and done what he himself denounced.

To come back to the Gujarat equation, Hardik Patel, AlpeshThakor and Jignesh Mewani represent three distinct segments of the Gujarat society. If Hardik is the product of the aggressive Patidar movement, Alpesh may be called the by-product since he rose against the Patidar andolan to lead his OBC caste. Jignesh is the face of Dalit angst and unease who continue to face social oppression in the country at the hands of so-called 'upper castes'.

Hardik wants job guarantee through OBC reservation for the Patidar youth. His argument is that Patidars are no more the landlords they once were and landholdings have shrunk thus pushing the community to poverty. Alpesh is even newer than Hardik although belonging to a family actively involved in politics. His contention is that in no case should the OBC quota be further divided, a clear indication towards the Patidarandolan. Jignesh is up in arms against all powerful castes which include Patidars and OBCs. So how is the Congress leadership planning to balance out all these contradictory interests and still convince them to vote for the party? We do not know. That the delay in clearing the picture is owing precisely to these contradictions has already been pointed out by many. Alpesh has formally joined Congress (which he was already a part) and declared support for the party. Jignesh has extended support but keeps stressing that he will not join. Hardik has been changing his stance three times a day.

Presuming that all three come out completely in support of the Congress, how would that shore up the Congress party's fortunes in the state? That would depend largely on how much support of their respective castes do these young leaders enjoy? As of now the question remains untested. Does any of them enjoy 'the leader' status of his caste like Nitish Kumar of the Kurmis in Bihar? Do Gujaratis even vote en bloc as a caste or isn't their voting pattern governed more by commercial and trade interests? Jignesh and Alpesh have led their people in street protests but their electoral power is still open to jury. Hardik, of course, was around when the Congress did well in the rural areas in the local body polls.

Though it may be remembered that these polls were conducted when the Patidarandolan was at its peak and much water has flown since then. Hardik himself is a tad wiser after seeing the fate of the quota legislation (on economic criteria) struck down by the judiciary. Obviously the reason why he is not opening all his cards yet.

The longer these Gujarat Ke Ladke take to negotiate with the Congress, the greater the chances of their caste voters staying with the BJP.

(Smita Mishra, Adviser, Prasar Bharati)