Poll Predictions: Will BJP Outperform TMC In Bengal If Elections Are Held Today? MOTN Survey Is Out

Will the BJP outperform the TMC in West Bengal if the elections are held today? The latest India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey offers a revealing snapshot of India's political pulse as 2026 unfolds.

Conducted across eight weeks with over 1.25 lakh respondents nationwide, the survey suggests that while the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) continues to dominate the national stage, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) remains the decisive force in West Bengal.

Bengal: A Familiar Story with Minor Twists

In West Bengal, the survey projects the TMC winning 28 of the state's 42 Lok Sabha seats if elections were held today. This is only a slight dip from the 29 seats it secured in 2024, when Mamata Banerjee's party bettered its 2019 performance. The BJP, meanwhile, is expected to notch up 14 seats, a modest improvement from its 2024 tally of 12.

The numbers highlight Bengal's increasingly bipolar contest, with the Congress and Left pushed further into irrelevance. CVoter's founder-director Yashwant Deshmukh noted that the state's politics is becoming more sharply polarised, with voters consolidating behind either the Trinamool or the BJP.

Interestingly, the August 2025 edition of the MOTN survey had predicted 31 seats for the TMC and only 11 for the BJP. The latest figures therefore reflect a slight recovery for the saffron party, though not enough to challenge Trinamool's supremacy.

National Picture: NDA's Grip Remains Firm

At the national level, the survey underscores the NDA's continued strength. If elections were held today, the alliance is projected to win 352 seats, comfortably above the majority mark and broadly consistent with its 2024 performance.

While this falls short of the ambitious "400 paar" slogan raised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the last general election campaign, the numbers suggest that voter trust in the NDA remains intact. The alliance's recent victories in Delhi and Bihar in 2025, followed by decisive wins in the BMC and Maharashtra municipal polls in early 2026, reinforce its electoral momentum.

INDIA Bloc: Losing Steam

The Congress-led INDIA bloc, which surprised many by winning 234 seats in 2024, appears to be struggling to maintain its position. The MOTN survey projects the bloc at 182 seats, a steep decline from the 208 seats predicted in August 2025. This downward trend signals challenges in sustaining unity and voter confidence across diverse states.

Shifting Trends Over Time

The survey also highlights how voter sentiment has fluctuated over the past two years. In February 2024, projections had placed the TMC at 22 seats and the BJP at 19 seats in Bengal, suggesting a neck-and-neck fight. By August 2024, the pendulum swung decisively towards the TMC, with 32 seats predicted for Mamata's party and only eight for the BJP.
The current survey shows the BJP clawing back some ground, but the Trinamool remains firmly ahead.

As India heads into another politically charged year, the MOTN survey paints a picture of continuity with subtle shifts. Nationally, the NDA's dominance looks secure, while in Bengal, Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool continues to hold its ground against a gradually advancing BJP. For the Congress-led INDIA bloc, however, the challenge is stark: reversing a slide that threatens to erode its hard-won gains from 2024.