Poll Diary Forecast Big Margin In Bihar: NDA Set for Landslide Win with 184–209 Seats, MGB Struggles

The Poll Diary Exit Poll 2025 paints a decisive picture for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Bihar Assembly Elections, predicting a landslide victory that could reshape the state's political landscape.

According to the projections, the NDA is expected to secure between 184 and 209 seats, a commanding lead that places it well above the majority mark of 122 in the 243-member Assembly. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is likely to manage only 32 to 49 seats, signaling a steep decline from its previous performance. Smaller parties and independents are projected to win between 1 and 5 seats.

NDA on Course for a Massive Mandate

If these numbers hold, the result would mark one of the strongest mandates for the NDA in recent years. The alliance's focus on governance, infrastructure expansion, and welfare schemes appears to have resonated strongly with voters across urban and rural Bihar.

MGB Struggles to Regain Lost Ground

The RJD-led Mahagathbandhan seems to have failed to consolidate its core support base, especially among younger and first-time voters. Analysts suggest that fragmented messaging and internal rifts may have weakened its campaign momentum in key constituencies.

Smaller Players Remain Marginal

Minor parties and independents continue to play a limited role, collectively expected to secure less than five seats - a sign that Bihar's electoral fight remains largely bipolar.

With counting set for November 14, all eyes are now on whether the exit poll predictions translate into actual results. If the Poll Diary numbers prove accurate, Bihar may witness the return of a strong NDA government with a comfortable majority.