PM Modi Holds Steady, Rahul Gandhi Gains Ground: Key Insights From MOTN Survey

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections brought unexpected results as a strong performance by the opposition prevented the BJP from securing a majority, though the NDA coalition managed to hold on with a narrow victory.

If elections were held today, the situation would likely remain similar, but the Congress party would see a notable rise, possibly crossing the 100-seat mark, according to India Today's Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey.

Photo Credit: PTI

Current Political Landscape

With the Modi 3.0 government now three months into its term, the survey suggests that the BJP-led NDA would slightly improve its position, gaining six seats to reach a total of 299 if elections were held today. Meanwhile, the opposition INDIA bloc would maintain its strength, losing just one seat to stand at 233.

Leaders' Popularity

One of the key insights from the survey was the narrowing gap between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi in terms of who the public believes is best suited to lead the country. While Modi remains the favored choice, with 49% of respondents backing him, Rahul Gandhi has seen a rise in support, with 22.4% choosing him, marking a significant improvement compared to earlier surveys.

Survey Details

The August 2024 edition of the Mood of the Nation survey, conducted by CVoter, took place between July 15 and August 10, 2024. It included interviews with 40,591 respondents across all 543 Lok Sabha constituencies, alongside an analysis of 95,872 interviews from CVoter's regular weekly tracker to identify long-term trends in voting patterns.

2024 Election Results Recap

In the 2024 national elections, the NDA secured 293 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, while the opposition performed better than expected, winning 234 seats. The Congress party, in particular, saw its seat count jump from 52 to 99, making it eligible to appoint a Leader of the Opposition for the first time in 10 years.

The BJP, which had aimed to win 370 seats for itself and over 400 for the NDA, ended up with 240 seats, a decrease of 63 from its 2019 tally. The party had to rely on its allies to form a third consecutive government.

Mood of the Nation Survey Findings

If a general election were held today, the BJP would likely gain four more seats, reaching 244, with a slight increase in its vote share. However, the party's vote share has decreased since the last election, dropping from 37.7% to 36.56%, although the survey gives the BJP a projected 38% vote share. The NDA as a whole is expected to garner 43.7% of the votes.

The Congress, experiencing a resurgence, would see its seat count rise to 106 if elections were held today. The party's vote share would also increase to 25.4%, up from the 21.20% it received in the 2024 elections and 19.46% in 2019.

Earlier predictions from the Mood of the Nation survey had indicated that the NDA, led by Narendra Modi, was expected to secure a strong majority, though short of its ambitious 400-seat goal, with a projected 335 seats. The INDIA opposition bloc was expected to win 166 seats.