Phalodi Satta Bazar Forecasts Bihar Assembly Election 2025: Will NDA Edge Out Mahagathbandhan?

As Bihar prepares to vote in the second phase of the Assembly elections on November 11, the famous Phalodi Satta Bazar has released new figures that have intensified political chatter. Early trends from the market suggest that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to retain power, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan may fall short of a majority.

NDA Projected to Cross Majority Mark

According to Phalodi Satta Bazar predictions, the NDA could secure 128 to 134 seats in the 243-member Assembly, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 122 seats.

BJP: 66-68 seats

JD(U): 54-56 seats

If these projections materialise, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar may return to office once again with BJP's backing, continuing his long-standing dominance in Bihar politics.

Mahagathbandhan Set to Lag Behind

The Mahagathbandhan, led by Tejashwi Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), is expected to win 93 to 99 seats. Within the alliance, RJD may secure 69 to 71 seats, while the Congress and Left parties are projected to make only limited gains in select regions. Smaller alliances and independents are unlikely to make a major impact, market watchers noted.

Nitish Kumar's Chances Priced Favourably

Phalodi bettors are currently pricing Nitish Kumar's return as Chief Minister between 40 and 45 paise, reflecting a strong confidence in his comeback. Such low odds typically indicate a high probability of success in the market's language.

While the Phalodi market continues to attract nationwide attention during elections, authorities have reiterated that betting on polls remains illegal in India. Under Indian law, gambling or speculation without government permission can lead to imprisonment and fines. Despite the ban, election-related discussions in betting circles continue to thrive informally, often influencing public curiosity.

Located in Rajasthan's Marwar region, the Phalodi betting market has earned a reputation for its striking accuracy in predicting election outcomes and other major events. In previous years, it has correctly gauged results in Delhi Assembly elections, cricket matches, and stock market shifts, earning it the tag of an "unofficial political barometer."

As Bihar heads into the second phase of polling, all eyes remain on whether these market trends will align with the final results - or if Bihar's voters will defy the odds yet again.