Omicron will peak in February 2022: Experts
New Delhi, Dec 22: The Omicron variant of COVID-19 is expected to peak in February 2022, but it could subside in a month, experts said.
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Two scientists behind the Sutra model tracking the trajectory of COVID-19 said that a mild new wave may hit India in February.
Manindra Agrawal of IIT Kanpur and M Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad, co-founders of the model said that in the worst case scenario, daily new cases may be in the range of 1.5 to 2 lakhs in February. This may happen if the Omicron variant completely evades immunities acquired naturally or through vaccination, the told India Today.
The professors also said that given the similarity in demographics and the level of natural immunity, India is likely to mirror the Omicron trajectory unfolding in South Africa. They said that if what is happening in South Africa is any measure, the spread of the new variant will be fast and its fall from the peak equally swift. In South Africa the cases peaked in three weeks and the decline has already started Agarwal said.
The Omicron scare is expected to come down from February if the current projections about the cases, deaths and hospitalisations are to be considered for the United Kingdom and United States.
The Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in a report (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/forecasting/mathematical-modeling-outbreak.html) said infections with the recently identified Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, are exponentially increasing in multiple countries. Increases in infections are most likely due to a combination of two factors: increased transmissibility and the ability of the variant to evade immunity conferred by past infection or vaccination (i.e., immune evasion). Though the precise contribution of each of the two factors remains unknown, a substantial degree of immune evasion is likely as has been demonstrated in early in vitro studies.
The clinical severity profile of Omicron infection will strongly influence its impact on future U.S. hospitalizations and deaths. At present, early data suggest Omicron infection might be less severe than infection with prior variants; however, reliable data on clinical severity remain limited 12. Even if the proportion of infections associated with severe outcomes is lower than with previous variants, given the likely increase in number of infections, the absolute numbers of people with severe outcomes could be substantial. In addition, demand for ambulatory care, supportive care for treatment of mild cases, and infection control requirements, quarantining/isolation of exposed/infected workforce could also stress the healthcare system. These stresses likely will be in addition to the ongoing Delta variant infections and a rising burden of illness caused by other respiratory pathogens, such as influenza, which have begun circulating at greater frequencies, the report also added.