Omicron affirms possibility of third wave: Peak in February

New Delhi, Dec 25: The presence of Omicron, a new variant of COVID-19 has affirmed the possibility of a third wave. Experts say that the rise in the number of Omicron cases could lead to another wave and it could hit by February.

The report published in the online preprint health server MedRxiv has said that the third wave may start around mid-december and peak in February.

"Following the trends around the world, this project report forecasts India's third wave may start around mid-December and peak at the beginning of February", the report said.

'Gaussian Mixture' model the statistical tool was used to present a near accurate analysis of the ongoing situation and predict a third wave. Particular emphasis was laid on analysing the current rise in Omicron cases in several other countries.

The research team of MedRxiv is drawn from the department of mathematics and statistics at IIT-Kanpur. The team is led by Parshad Rajeshbhai, Shalabh and Subhra Sankar Dhar.

The cases reach peak value after 735 days from our initial observation date, which is January 30, 2020, when India reported its first official case of COVID-19. So, the cases start rising around December 15, 2021, and the peak of the third wave will occur on Thursday, February 3, 2022, the researchers said.
Meanwhile the Omicron tally in India has crossed 350. The government has warned the people to remain vigilant and follow all protocols.