No El Nino, Less Snow: IMD Bets on Bountiful Rains in 2025, But Will the Forecast Hold True?

India could be in for a wetter-than-usual monsoon this year, with rainfall expected to exceed the long-term average by around 5%, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Tuesday, April 15, 2025. If accurate, this would mark the second consecutive year of surplus monsoon rains-last year saw an 8% increase over the June-to-September average of 87 cm.

Though the forecast comes with a 4% margin of error, the implications are significant. It could lead to better irrigation for the kharif season crops and boost water levels in reservoirs. However, stronger rains also bring the risk of extreme weather events, including flash floods.

One of the driving factors behind the positive outlook is the absence of the El Niño phenomenon, which often suppresses rainfall. El Niño is characterised by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific and has historically been associated with weaker monsoons. Its absence this year fuels hope for better precipitation.

Another encouraging signal is the low Eurasian snow cover observed between January and March this year. IMD scientists note that this metric tends to inversely correlate with Indian summer monsoon performance-less snow often corresponds to higher rainfall.

Currently, the Pacific Ocean is experiencing 'neutral' conditions, with no clear signs of El Niño or La Niña dominating. However, some atmospheric patterns resemble La Niña, which typically supports stronger monsoon activity. Similarly, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which also influences monsoon trends, remains in a neutral phase and is likely to stay that way through the season. A positive IOD, often associated with enhanced rainfall, has not yet developed.

Speaking at a press briefing, M. Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, explained that IMD uses a dynamic, coupled climate model that simulates interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere. Five major parameters-including snow cover-are factored into April's forecast. "Historically, Eurasian snow cover has shown a 33% correlation with monsoon strength," he said, though he added that the atmosphere's complexities often defy straightforward predictions.

While a more detailed regional forecast is expected in May, the current data suggests that central and eastern India-the heart of the rain-fed agriculture belt-will likely see normal rainfall. Conversely, regions in northwest, northeast, and southern peninsular India may receive slightly below-average rain.

Since adopting a new forecasting methodology in 2021, the IMD has reduced its average prediction error to 2.7%-a significant improvement over the 7.5% deviation recorded between 2017 and 2020. "This shows the updated model has made our forecasts more reliable," Ravichandran added.