Nearly 70% chances of El Nino this year, warns IMD

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has retained its 'El Nino alert', signalling an approximately 70 per cent chance for the warming event to occur this monsoon.

The weather phenomenon, which is associated with the warming of sea surface temperatures over Pacific Ocean, results in a significant shortage of rainfall, which in turn may threaten agriculture, consumption, and the economy.

The weather department has said that there is a 70 per cent chances of El Nino in the June, July, August season and it could rise to 80% in July, August and September season.

Following the alert, the government has taken additional steps to protect farmers, especially by issuing specific advisories and forecasts for each of India's 700-odd districts based on different rainfall scenarios.

The Union ministry of Agriculture and IMD have been holding back-to-back meetings to draw region-specific mitigation plans.

On April 11, IMD predicted that India is likely to get normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season despite the formation of El Nino conditions.

What is El Nino alert'?

According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (or ENSO) is a climate pattern defined by sea surface temperature and precipitation departures from normal across the equatorial Pacific Ocean that can influence weather and climate patterns across the U.S. and around the world.

It is the warm phase of ENSO when ocean temperatures are warmer and precipitation is greater than normal in the area spanning the central to eastern Pacific Ocean.

The monsoon-disrupting weather pattern leads to climate chaos across the globe and, often, drought in India.

India saw seven El Nino years between 2001 and 2020. Of these, the years 2003, 2005, 2009-10, 2015-16 were declared drought.

2022 was the fifth hottest on record, but with the return of El Nino, 2023 could prove to be even hotter. This year is already forecast to be hotter than 2022, but with El Nino occurring in the second half of 2023 means 2024 is much more likely to set a new global temperature record.

US weather agencies have also forecast increased chances of an El Nino to 74% from 61% a month ago.