NDA Wins, Modi Equals Nehru's Record And BJP Poised For Major Expansion

Strange are the ways of the verdict electors throw at times. The 2024 poll results would be marked with one such message. The incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has won but the cadre and supporters are not very happy: The opposition INDIA alliance has lost but they are jubilant. Strange!

The beauty of democracy is best displayed in such results. The losers are happy and garrulous and the victors are despondent despite Modi poised to take oath as Prime Minister for a third consecutive term, a feat that was achieved by the first Prime Minister is India, Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru.

Modi's victory is much bigger considering that during Nehru's time the population of India was only 44 crore and the Congress had complete sway because of its historical positioning during India's independence from the British rule. The society was not conflict ridden and people were by and large homogenous.

Modi's India comprises a population of 140 crore. He is battling caste and religious divide to bring people on the plank of development. Getting a third term was extremely tough for any party irrespective of the slogan of 400 plus. Insiders in the BJP knew that getting a third term would be a great achievement.

The BJP's performance is spectacular considering it has won a new state Odisha. This is horizontal expansion that has come after years of struggle. With Navin Patnaik in the decline, the BJP is going to stay there for a long time. The second achievement is Telangana where the party has won 8 of the 17 with another eight seats going to the Congress and Asaduddin Owaisi of the AIMIM (All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen) winning the Hyderabad seat. The BJP would position itself for the Telangana assembly elections next time. The NDA has already won Andhra Pradesh with the TDP (Telugu Desam Party) leading the front.

The party's historic win is the Lok Sabha seat from Thrissur in Kerala. Despite a strong cadre presence and torture BJP workers suffered at the hands of the cadre of the Left parties, they were unable to register an electoral victory. With 17 per cent of the popular votes in 2024, the BJP has emerged as a clear third pole in the State.

For the first time the BJP contested Tamil Nadu as a major political force by fielding candidates on 23 of the 39 seats and shared the rest with allies. Although the party did not win even one seat, it registered an impressive vote share of more than 11 per cent. Now the party would gain the confidence to wage a serious fight to win Tamil Nadu.

The news from Punjab too is good for the BJP even if it did not win any of the 13 seats it contested. This was the first time the party was contesting all Lok Sabha seats on its own. The BJP clearly emerged the third major force in the State with 18.56 per cent votes (from 9.63 per cent votes in 2019) as against 26.3 per cent of the Congress and 26.02 per cent of the Aam Aadmi Party. The vote share of Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) has come down from 27.45 per cent in 2019 to 13.42 per cent. The BJP can either plan an independent course in Punjab or stich an alliance with the SAD on equal terms

The BJP's 400 plus slogan came in the context of its own strength of 303 and the strength of parties supporting the NDA which had 353 seats. The task was stupendous since the BJP had already peaked in most states from where it drew its strength. This means retaining the numbers of 2019 and winning some more seats in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal and the southern states.

The party lost substantial seats in Uttar Pradesh winning only 32 of the 80 seats against the 62 it won in 2019. The second major casualty was in Maharashtra where the party could not improve on its performance of 2019. In Rajasthan also the party could not witness the sweep on 25 seats it witnessed in 2019. In Haryana and Jharkhand too, the BJP lost substantial seats.

The silver lining would emerge if we consider this to be one of the worst performances of the BJP. The INDIA alliance was somehow able to achieve unity of purpose on most seats. This means despite a bad performance, the BJP won substantial seats to stay in power along with its allies in the NDA. Despite losing substantial seats in its core states, the BJP seems to have stabilized at 240 seats. One should recall that even at the peak of popularity of Atal Bihari Vajpayee post Kargil victory in 1999, the BJP's Lok Sabha tally had reached 182.

This has prepared the stage for the next Lok Sabha elections in 2029. Gaining a few seats here and there would not be tough. The BJP's figure in UP is bound to improve. For the Congress it is tough to expand without incurring the wrath of its allies in most states. The BJP has witnessed horizontal expansion should be a worry for the opposition.

The India alliance good show came due to their necessity to join hands against the Modi government's action on corruption. Look at the credentials of the leaders of the opposition alliance and one can easily decipher why they came together. They fought against each other but came together where the BJP was strong.

They projected two issues: political persecution and threat to the constitution. These two combined with caste polarization to give them a decisive edge in crucial state of Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. They inducted fear amongst voters without any ground to substantiate their claims. INDIA alliance is not a natural alliance or an alliance based on any political ideology.

Have the people forgotten the fight against corruption that the Modi government had launched? At the peripheral level this would appear so since the INDIA alliance got good support of the electorate. But this is temporary. For the common man on the street who has not developed much stakes in his or her life, caste would play a decisive role and they would not get swayed by the issue of corruption. Also, the opposition successfully sold its agenda of political persecution.

For the fight to go to the next level, the BJP run governments in the States would need to come clean on the image of corruption. The image of State governments dents the image of the Centre as well. And prosecutive agencies must come clean by producing incontrovertible evidence so that the corrupts can be sent behind the bars.

It was hearty to hear Modi speak of continuing with his tirade against corruption. Those in the opposition who may have concluded that they would be able to save themselves from their acts of omissions and commissions would be mistaken. They may become vocal and agitational but they would find it hard to defect their acts. And as people become driven more by economic and developmental considerations, the affiliations of caste would loosen.

The biggest lesson is that the divisive forces trying to disrupt the country's progress tried their best but failed to derail the country's onward march. TDP's N Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal United (JDU) are two matured politicians aligned to the concept of development. The NDA alliance, therefore, is strong and can take decisive steps to further streamline the system.

ABOUT AUTHOR

Sudesh Verma

Author is former spokesperson of the BJP and a member of the BJP's core media team. He has authored two books on Narendra Modi called Narendra Modi: The GameChanger, and Transforming India: Game Changer in Action.