India Set for Weak Monsoon Spell, Rain Deficit Expected in Coming Two Weeks

India is likely to see below-average rain in the next two weeks, especially in central and northern regions, according to two senior weather officials. They said some weather systems called western disturbances have slowed the annual monsoon. Both officials spoke on Thursday and asked not to be named.

Western disturbances are systems from the Mediterranean Sea. They bring rain and snow to north India. These systems can also slow the monsoon. The weaker rain may delay sowing of key summer crops like rice, cotton, soybeans and pulses in many states.

The monsoon supplies about 70% of India’s yearly rain. It fills rivers, reservoirs and groundwater. Nearly half of India’s farmland has no irrigation. About half the population depends on farming for income. So changes in monsoon rain can hit rural jobs and food supply.

Monsoon advance slowed in central India

“Western disturbances have slowed the monsoon's advance, and it could take a few more days before it moves into central India,” said a senior India Meteorological Department official. The normal June to September monsoon usually starts over Kerala around 1 June.

It then covers the whole country by mid-July in a normal year. This year the onset over Kerala was delayed by three days. So far the monsoon has reached Kerala, Tamil Nadu and most of Andhra Pradesh. It has also covered Karnataka and parts of southern Maharashtra.

These southern areas are expected to get good rain over the next fortnight, the official said. But central and northern regions are likely to see much lower than normal rain in that period. The monsoon is expected to gain pace in the last week of June.

Forecast for season and impact on crops

In that last week, most states are likely to receive ample rainfall, another weather department official said. Both officials are not authorised to speak to media. In the first ten days of June, India’s rainfall was 26.5% below normal across the country.

Last month the weather department forecast that India is likely to get 90% of the long-period average rain during the whole four-month monsoon. It also said June rain is expected at 92% of the long-period average. The department linked this to the emergence of El Nino.