Monsoon updates: Rainfall to revive after June 24

The was weak for the last one week, but is expected to pick up again from June 24 onwards, said India Meteorological Department (IMD) latest weather update. The southwest monsoon had weakened after remaining "very active" during the first half of June. The India Meteorological Department said the "lull" in monsoon activity is normal.

"The Southwest Monsoon could not advance further since last one week due to weak monsoon flow in associations with (a) weak cross equatorial flow (ii) Unfavorable location of active phase of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) (iii) an equatorial eastwards propagating oscillations which lay over central & east Pacific Ocean, Western Hemisphere and Africa and (iv) development of low pressure system over northwest pacific Ocean," IMD's Wednesday morning's bulletin said.

"However, the monsoon circulation is likely to improve from around 24th June with (i) expected movement of active phase of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) to west Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining Arabian Sea during next 2-3 days and (ii) developmentof cyclonic circulations over
eastern India leading to strengthening of easterlies winds over Gangetic plains. As a result, the Southwest Monsoon is likely to further advance over remaining parts of Assam, some more parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal and some parts of Jharkhand, Bihar and MadhyaPradesh between 23rd to 25th June," it added.

The southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 29, three days ahead of its normal onset and, over the past a few days, it has battered parts of the western coast and the northeast.

Odisha and other parts of east India would start receiving "good" rainfall from June 23-24 while Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and other parts of the southern peninsula from June 26, reports quoted an IMD official as saying.

According to the IMD's prediction on distribution of rainfall this monsoon, the central India will get 'normal' rainfall but the southern Peninsula - Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry - may get 'below normal' rainfall.

The north-east India is expected to get least rainfall (below normal) during the period. The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 101% of its Long Period Average (LPA) during July, and 94% of the LPA during August - both with a model error of plus or minus 9%.

Anything between 90%-96% of the LPA is considered "below normal" while rainfall in the range of 96%-104% of the LPA is considered "normal." Also, rainfall is considered "deficient" if it ranges below 90% of the LPA, and "above normal" if it falls between 104%-110% cent of the LPA. Above 110% of the LPA is considered "excess" rainfall.