Monsoon Update: Heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places very likely over coastal K'taka, Kerala
The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Thane (including Mumbai), Ahmednagar, Buldhana, Amravati, Gondia, Titlagarh, Cuttack, Midnapore, Goalpara, Baghdogra. Further advance of southwest monsoon is not likely during next one weak due to the likely prevalence of weak monsoon pattern.
According to IMD weather bulletin, on June 16 (today), heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places very likely over coastal Karnataka and Kerala; heavy rain at isolated places very likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, Uttarakhand, Konkan and Goa and south interior Karnataka.
Thunderstorm accompanied with gusty winds and lightning very likely at isolated places over Bihar, east Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and interior Tamil Nadu. Thunderstorm accompanied with squall very likely at isolated places over west Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir. Duststorm / Thunderstorm at isolated places very likely over Rajasthan.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall occurred at isolated places over Assam and Meghalaya and heavy at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura and Coastal Karnataka during past 24 hours ending at 0830 hours IST of Friday. Also, thunderstorm was observed at isolated places over Jammu Division of Jammu and Kashmir and Uttarakhand from 1130 hours IST to 1430 hours IST.
According to the IMD's prediction on the distribution of rainfall this monsoon, central India will get 'normal' rainfall but the southern Peninsula - Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry - may get 'below normal' rainfall.
North-east India is expected to get least rainfall (below normal) during the period. The monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 101% of its Long Period Average (LPA) during July, and 94% of the LPA during August - both with a model error of plus or minus 9%. Anything between 90%-96% of the LPA is considered "below normal" while rainfall in the range of 96%-104% of the LPA is considered "normal." Also, rainfall is considered "deficient" if it ranges below 90% of the LPA, and "above normal" if it falls between 104%-110% cent of the LPA. Above 110% of the LPA is considered "excess" rainfall.