At 106% Rainfall, IMD Predicts Above-Normal Monsoon In 2024

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Monday that the monsoon rainfall for this season is likely to be 106% of the long-period average of 87 cm.

Most parts of India are expected to experience above-normal rainfall, except for some regions in the northwest, east, and northeastern states. La Nina conditions, typically associated with a favorable monsoon in India, are expected to set in by August-September, according to IMD.

IMD chief Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra noted, "Data from 1951 to 2023 shows India experienced above-normal monsoon rainfall on nine occasions when La Nina followed El Nino event."

The monsoon, which typically arrives over the southern tip of Kerala state around June 1 and retreats by mid-September, is projected to total 106% of the long-term average this year, according to M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

The IMD defines average or normal rainfall as ranging between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season. Ravichandran explained, "According to the rainfall data from 1971 till 2020, we have introduced new long-period average and normal...According to this normal, from June 1 to 30 September, the average of the total rainfall of the entire country will be 87 cm..."