Maharashtra Exit Polls 2024: People’s Pulse Predicts Mahayuti To Win 175-195 Seats

After the polls closed for the Maharashtra Assembly elections on 20 November, an exit poll conducted by People's Pulse suggested a victory for the BJP and Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde)-led Mahayuti alliance.

This Hyderabad-based agency foresees the alliance clinching between 175 and 195 seats out of the 288 available, comfortably surpassing the 145-seat threshold needed to form a government. The BJP is expected to lead the charge with an estimated 102 to 120 seats, leaving the Congress with a projected 24 to 44 seats.

In terms of vote share, the Mahayuti alliance is predicted to have garnered 49.8 percent of the total votes, indicating a strong preference among the electorate. This is a significant lead over the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, which is expected to have secured 40.1 percent of the vote. Other smaller parties and independents are predicted to have collected 10.1 percent of the vote share. This distribution underscores the Mahayuti alliance's dominance in the elections, with the BJP alone accounting for 31.3 percent of the votes, the highest of any single party.

The preference for Maharashtra's next chief minister is clear, with Eknath Shinde being the top choice among 35.8 percent of the respondents. This places him well ahead of Uddhav Thackeray and Devendra Fadnavis, who received 21.7 percent and 11.7 percent of the vote, respectively. Notably, 20.9 percent of those surveyed expressed a desire for a new face to lead the state, highlighting a significant portion of the electorate open to change.

Regarding the allocation of seats, the People's Pulse survey estimates that the Mahayuti alliance will secure 182 seats, falling within the predicted range of 175 to 195 seats. This is in contrast to the MVA alliance, which is expected to lag behind with an estimated range of 85 to 112 seats. The BJP is poised to be the largest party within the Mahayuti alliance, with a projected 113 seats, while its partner, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde), could win 52 seats. The opposition, including the Congress and the NCP factions led by Sharad and Ajit Pawar, is forecasted to win 35 and 17 seats, respectively, indicating a challenging election for them.

Reflecting on the election's outcome, Girish Mahajan, a BJP leader and Maharashtra minister, shared his confidence in an interview with South First, stating, "It will be a clear majority. And I believe all media surveys are on our side as well." This confidence seems well-founded, given the exit poll's predictions. Moreover, despite expectations that Maratha reservation advocate Manoj Jarange Patil might sway the election, the People's Pulse results suggest his impact was minimal.