Looked Down And Out Months Ago, How Opposition Staged Comeback Against BJP

The results of India's general election have led to an intriguing and somewhat contradictory situation in the political landscape. The NDA, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has achieved a historic third term in power, securing over 290 seats in the 543-member parliament. However, this victory is nuanced by the fact that BJP, did not reach the critical 'magic number' of 272 seats needed to form the government independently. This shortfall has resulted in Modi being perceived as a weakened leader despite the alliance's overall success.

On the other hand, the opposition INDIA bloc, led by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, is experiencing a moment of unexpected celebration. INDIA managed to win just over 230 seats, falling short of the required majority to form a government. Despite this, their performance is considered a significant comeback, especially given their previous standings. Congress and its allies have interpreted the results as a symbolic and strategic victory against Modi, which was heavily marketed during the campaign.

Congress has framed the election outcome as a "moral and political defeat" for Modi, highlighting the inability of BJP to secure a majority on its own despite Modi's personal appeal and campaign efforts. On Tuesday evening, Gandhi held a press conference where he reiterated this narrative, stating that the electorate had unequivocally conveyed their disapproval of PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah.

Gandhi's declaration that the country has unanimously sent a message to Mr. Modi and Amit Shah that "we do not want you" underscores the opposition's interpretation of the results as a rebuke to the PM's governance and policies.

This scenario has led to a peculiar situation where the technical winners of the election - the NDA - are reacting with caution and perhaps a sense of diminished triumph, while the runners-up - INDIA bloc - are celebrating what they view as a moral victory and a significant political resurgence. The jubilation within the opposition camp, despite their inability to form a government, highlights their belief that the electorate's verdict signals a broader shift in the political climate and a challenge to Modi's dominance.

Why is the Opposition celebrating? A backdrop

Heading into the election, the Opposition looked disorganised and on the brink of collapse. The Congress-led INDIA bloc seemed unlikely to mount a serious challenge to Prime Minister Modi, who appeared invincible on surface. The Opposition faced significant adversity as the election approached. Government agencies like ED and CBI conducted raids on Opposition parties' leaders and two sitting CMs - Hemant Soren and Arvind Kejriwal - were jailed. Meanwhile, Congress' bank accounts were frozen by the income tax authorities.

The unexpected success of the Opposition can be largely credited to Rahul Gandhi. Despite his political background, he faced significant skepticism. The mainstream media often criticised him, portraying him as a frivolous politician who took too many holidays. However, Gandhi managed to change this perception through persistent efforts over recent years.

Gandhi's 'Bharat Jodo Yatra' and 'Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra', which took him across the country, allowed him to connect with millions of people, boosting his stature and garnering widespread support. These initiatives not only increased his confidence but also reinforced his political influence.

Despite these efforts, Gandhi was not initially seen as a significant threat to Modi. His political journey faced additional hurdles when a court in Gujarat convicted him of defamation, resulting in his expulsion from Parliament and a ban on contesting elections. The Supreme Court eventually suspended his conviction, allowing him to re-enter the political arena.

Why is this significant?

Political analyst and author Ajoy Bose suggests that the BJP's aggressive tactics to intimidate the Opposition backfired. The BJP's perceived arrogance and complacency, combined with their attempts to stifle the Opposition, led to the formation of the INDIA bloc. Many Opposition parties, fearing they would be wiped out, drew parallels to the Emergency of 1975 when then-Prime Minister Indira Gandhi suspended elections and curtailed civil rights. This historical context fueled a sense of urgency and resistance among the Opposition.

India's tradition of competitive democracy and the public's discomfort with the notion of a one-party dictatorship also played a role. The election results revealed strong resistance to the BJP in several Opposition-ruled states. In Tamil Nadu, the ruling DMK won all 39 seats, ensuring the saffron party out. In West Bengal, CM Mamata Banerjee restricted the BJP to 12 seats, down from 18 in 2019. In Maharashtra, BJP secured only nine seats compared to 23 in 2019, with its former ally Shiv Sena (UBT) winning an additional 18.

The most significant upset occurred in Uttar Pradesh (UP), where the alliance between Samajwadi Party and Congress emerged as a major success story. They won 43 of the state's 80 seats, reducing the BJP's tally to 33 from 62 in 2019 and 71 in 2014, respectively. Modi dismissed Gandhi and Yadav as a "pair of boys" whose alliance has "flopped" in the past. This narrative was proven wrong by the SP and Congress' impressive performance in the Hindi heartland state.

One of the election's key takeaways is that BJP's strategy centered around the Ram Mandir temple in Ayodhya did not yield the expected results. Despite Modi presiding over the temple's opening with great fanfare, the BJP candidate lost in the Faizabad constituency where the temple is located.

Abhishek Yadav, an SP youth-wing leader, noted that initial fears that the temple would secure the BJP's victory in UP were unfounded. By early April, it became evident that there was significant resentment against the BJP due to issues like unemployment, inflation, and changes in Army recruitment policies. The alliance between the Congress and SP within the INDIA bloc consolidated anti-BJP voters, leading to their collective success in the election.