Longest delayed since 2006; Data from past show Monsoons are likely to get worse

New Delhi, July 05: After what has been a warm week due to the prevalence of above-average daytime temperatures and heatwaves in the region, Delhi-NCR will have to still wait for little more time as the Southwest monsoon has been delayed further for at least five more days.

Monsoon delayed

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) in its latest forecast, that the monsoon is unlikely to advance in the remaining parts of north-west India, including Delhi, till at least July 7, which will make the 2021 monsoon's arrival in the national capital as delayed as in 2012 and the most delayed since 2006, according to the weather office's records.

On the other hand, the eastern part of the country is witnessing continuous rainfall. Where, as in West Bengal red alert has been issues and Bihar may experience heavy rainfall in the coming 48 hours.

Data from past 5 years

In 2012, the southwest monsoon arrived in the Capital on July 7, a full 10 days after its usual arrival date of June 27. The latest it has arrived in the past 17 years for which IMD has data is on July 9 in 2006. In 2019, 2010, 2005 and 2004, it made an official entry into Delhi on July 5.

Monsoon delayed in Kerala:

After arriving two days late in Kerala, the monsoon had raced across the country, covering eastern, central and adjoining northwest India, seven to 10 days earlier.

The meteorological office had earlier predicted that the wind system may reach Delhi by June 15, which would have been 12 days early.

However, westerly winds have been blocking its advance into Delhi, parts of Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana.

Normally, monsoon reaches Delhi by June 27 and covers the entire country by July 8. Last year, the wind system had reached Delhi on June 25 and covered the entire country by June 29.

The wind system is not likely to cover the remaining part of northwest India, including Delhi, Haryana, parts of west Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and west Rajasthan in the next six to seven days, the IMD said.

The last time the monsoon arrived so late in Delhi was on July 7 in 2012.

In 2016, although monsoon arrived in Kerala on June 8, it had covered the entire country by July 13.

Southwest monsoon consecutive years

Monsoon is a very complex and mysterious phenomenon. Southwest monsoon has earlier also had consecutive years of the normal monsoon but mostly finishing on the lower side of 100%. Between 2005 and 2008, seasonal rainfall was above normal at 106% of LPA in 2007 and normal in 2005, 2006, and 2008.

These normal were on the lower side of 100% and to be precise stand at 98.7%, 99.6%, and 98.3% respectively. First time ever in the last 2 decades, 'healthy normal' rainfall was recorded in 1996, 1997, and 1998 with a surplus of 103.4%, 102.2%, and 104% respectively.