Lok Sabha Pre Poll Survey For Gujarat: Can Congress-AAP Break BJP's Dominance In PM's Home State?

Can the Congress, which had not won a single seat in Gujarat in the last two Lok Sabha elections, change its fortunes, this time? Well, the latest survey claims that a shift may be on the horizon, with projections indicating that the Congress and AAP coalition could clinch a few seats in the upcoming general elections.

According to the Lok Poll survey report, the INDIA bloc is expected to get 3-5 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Whereas the BJP, which had won all 26 seats in the last two general elections, will win 21-23 seats.

Survey Findings

According to the Lok Poll survey, the INDIA bloc is anticipated to secure 3-5 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, while the BJP, which swept all 26 seats in the last two general elections, is forecasted to win 21-23 seats. The INC and AAP alliance are expected to garner 2-4 seats, posing a challenge to the BJP's dominant performance in the state.

Despite the BJP's enduring popularity due to figures like Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, there are signs of shifting sentiments, particularly within the tribal communities of Northern and Southern Gujarat, which may bolster support for the INDIA alliance.

Furthermore, discontent among local BJP members and leaders over the inclusion of opposition figures into the party ranks is palpable, potentially impacting the party's electoral prospects. With a notable surge in anti-incumbency sentiment, the winning margins of BJP candidates are anticipated to narrow compared to previous elections, signalling a potentially significant shake-up in Gujarat's political landscape.

The opinion poll had a sample size of 1350 per Parliamentary constituency.

In the last two general elections, the BJP had secured 62.21 (2019) per cent and 59.1 (2014) per cent vote share. Whereas the Congress had secured 32.11 (2019) vote share and 32.9 (2014) per cent vote share.

The last time that the Congress came up with a respectable performance was in 2009 when it had won 11 seats with a vote share of 43.86 per cent.