Lok Sabha Poll Predictions: How Well Will BJP Perform In South Indian States?

After the BJP emerged victorious in the three North Indian states in December, there has been a lot of debate around North vs South divide. While the BJP holds sway in the northern part of the country, the saffron party has struggled to leave its imprint in the South Indian states.

However, it has been successful only in Karnataka and in Telangana in the last Lok Sabha polls. In Kerala, it has been getting a notable percentage of votes but it could not translate into seats.

Will the BJP prove that it has acceptance across the country and put an end to the North vs South divide? Check out what The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt 2024 Pre-Poll Survey claims about the BJP's performance in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections:

Telangana

In the upcoming elections in Telangana, where there are a total of 17 seats, the BJP is predicted to garner 16.78 per cent of the vote share but without winning any seats, compared to the 4 seats it secured in 2019. The Congress is predicted to receive 42.50 per cent of the vote, resulting in 13 seats, a notable increase from its 3 seats in the previous election. Meanwhile, the BRS is anticipated to secure 32.62 per cent of the vote, leading to 4 seats, a decrease from its 10 seats in 2019 despite maintaining a substantial vote share.

Andhra

In Andhra Pradesh, where there are 25 seats up for grabs, the YSRCP is projected to secure 13 seats with a 32.81per cent vote share, a decline from its 22 seats in 2019 despite maintaining a substantial vote share. The TDP is anticipated to win 11 seats with a 31.49per cent vote share, compared to its 3 seats in the previous election. The BJP is predicted to clinch just 1 seat with an 11.70per cent vote share, a slight increase from its negligible performance in 2019. Meanwhile, the Congress is expected to secure 0 seats with a 5.72per cent vote share, down from its 1.31per cent vote share in the previous election.

Tamil Nadu

In Tamil Nadu, where 39 seats are at stake, the DMK is forecasted to secure 29-31 seats with a 38.33 per cent vote share, a slight decrease from its 38 seats in the previous election. The BJP is anticipated to win 4-6 seats with an 18.48 per cent vote share, marking an improvement from its zero seats and 3.71 per cent vote share last time. Meanwhile, the AIADMK is predicted to secure 4-6 seats with a 17.26 per cent vote share, a slight decrease from its 1 seat and 18.72 per cent vote share in the previous election.

Karnataka

In Karnataka, which has 28 seats up for grabs, the BJP is projected to secure a significant 58.27 per cent vote share, resulting in 26 seats, compared to its 25 seats in 2019 despite a lower vote share. The Congress is likely to garner 28.45 per cent of the vote, leading to just 2 seats. It had bagged just one seat in 2019.

Kerala

The UDF, which won 17 out of 19 seats in 2019, is predicted to perform well in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, a survey said.

The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt 2024 Pre-Poll Survey has claimed that the UDF will maintain its stronghold, albeit with a slight dip in vote share from 47.48 per cent to 46.98 per cent. On the other side, the Left Democratic Front (LDF), which had bagged only 2 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, is securing a projected vote share of 18.41 per cent compared to 32.05 per cent in 2019.

Notably, the BJP is poised to win 1 seat with an 8.11 per cent vote share.

Overall, the BJP and the Congress are predicted to win 32 seats from 129 seats. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the parties had won 29 and 23 seats, respectively.