Karnataka is divided into six regions including Bengaluru and each one has a different voting pattern. Karnataka has always been one of the toughest elections to predict and in every election, it has been noticed that the state votes differently in each of the regions.
C fore conducted the pre-poll survey in Karnataka between April 20th and 30th, 2018. Systematic random sampling methodology was used in selecting respondents for the survey. In all 6247 voters were interviewed from 61 assembly constituencies covering all regions using a structured questionnaire. Care was taken to ensure that different castes and communities were represented in the sample in their actual proportion. The survey has a margin of error of 2 percentage point at 95 percent confidence level.
The survey gives the Congress a clear majority and says that the party could end up with 118 to 128 seats. A party requires 113 to form a government in Karnataka. The BJP and JD(S) would end up with 63-73 and 29-36 respectively, the survey also said.
Region wise voting pattern:
Bangalore: There are 28 constituencies in Bangalore of which the Congress is expected to bag 17 to 19 seats. This is an 8 per cent swing when compared to 2013. The BJP would bag 8 to 10 whereas the JD(S) is expected to get 1 to 2.
Old Mysore Region: There are 65 seats up for grabs. Chikmagalur, Tumkur, Kolar, Chikballapur, Bangalore Rural, Mandya, Hassan, Mysore, Chamrajanagar and Ramnagaram constitute this region.
This has traditionally been a Congress-JD(S) belt. Here the Congress and JD(S) are in a close contest. The Congress the survey says would get 31 to 33 whereas the JD(S) is expected to finish with 25 to 27. The BJP would end up with 5 to 6.
Bombay Karnataka region: With 50 seats up for grabs, this region comprises, Belagavi, Bagalkot, Vijayapura, Haveri, Dharwad and Gadag. Here the Congress according to the survey would bag 27 to 29 seats whereas the BJP is expected to get 19 to 21. The JD(S) on the other hand could bag 1 to 2 seats.
Central Karnataka: Comprising Davangere, Shimoga and Chitradurga, this region has 22 seats. Here the BJP is expected to do better than the Congress. The BJP would bag 13 to whereas as the Congress would end up with 7 to 8. The JD(S) would get 1 to 2 seats.
Coastal Region: There are 19 seats in this region comprising Udupi, Uttara Kannada and Dakshin Kannada. The fight according to the survey is very close between the BJP and Congress.
The Congress is likely to wind up with 10 to 11 and the BJP, 8 to 9. The JD(S) may get 1 seat, the survey says. Here the BJP is making gains with a 43 per cent vote share, a 12 per cent upward swing compared to 2013. The Congress is also expected to gain 7 per cent and could end up with a 47 per cent vote share in the region.
Hyderabad-Karnataka: There are 40 seats here and the region comprises, Bidar, Gulbarga, Yadgir, Raichur, Koppal and Bellary. The Congress is expected to get 26 to 28 where as the BJP will end up with 10 to 12, the C fore survey says. In the case of the JD(S) it is 1 to 2.
|Karnataka Assembly Election dates|
|Date of notification||April 17|
|Last date to file nominations||April 24|
|Last date to withdraw nominations||April 27|
|Date of polling||May 12|
|Date of counting||May 15|