Karnataka elections: To cross half-way mark, arithmetic of regions are important

Since 2004 no party has been able to secure a majority in Karnataka. The year 2013 was however an exception

Karnataka interestingly votes region wise and this suggests that there cannot never be a common issue to vote in the state. There are four regions in Karnataka- Mumbai-Karnataka, Hyderabad-Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka and Old Mysuru Region.

Each political party has its own stronghold. For instance the JD(S) and Congress are very strong in the Old Mysuru Region, while the BJP bags most of its votes from the Coastal Karnataka region and northern parts of the state. This is probably one of the main reasons that the state since 2004 has seen no party getting an absolute majority, except in the years 2013. In 2013 the Congress emerged as the single largest party and this also went on to show that it is still the party which has a pan-Karnataka reach, although it is weaker in some parts of the state.

There have been four times in Karnataka when no party has got a majority. They were in 1983, 2004, 2008 and 2018. This only proves that Karnataka has an uneven voting pattern.

In the 1983 elections, the Janata Party emerged as the single largest party. It fared best in the Old Mysuru Region, but fared badly in the Hyderabad-Karnataka and Mumbai Karnataka regions. The Congress did well in these regions, but fared poorly in Old Mysuru Region.

The Old Mysuru Region bug also hit the BJP in 2004, where is fared poorly. The BJP was also unable to pull off the Hyderabad Karnataka Region as a result of which the JD(S) and Congress formed the government in Karnataka under the leadership of N Dharam Singh.

The 2008 election was an interesting one. B S Yediyurappa of the BJP was riding on a sympathy wave after the JD(S) failed to honour its term sharing promise. H D Kumaraswamy was the Chief Minister for two years and when it was the turn of the BJP, the JDS(S) ditched them. There were many attempts made, but then Yediyurappa who was sure of losing the trust vote, resigned on the floor of the assembly and decided to face the elections.

However in 2008, the BJP still did not get an absolute majority. It improved its tally in the Old Mysuru Region and put up a good performance in Mumbai-Karnataka and Coastal Karnataka, while making some inroads in Old Mysuru. The party finally formed the government with the support of the independents.

Leading psephologist, Dr. Sandeep Shastri tells OneIndia that one point must be noted and that is no party has managed to secure a majority without doing well in Old Mysuru and Mumbai Karnataka Regions. It is mandatory to do well in these regions in order to come to power, Dr. Shastri also said. What pushes them to a bigger majority is also doing well in Coastal Karnataka and the Hyderabad Karnataka region, he also adds.

Whenever the BJP has been the single largest party, but has fallen short of a majority is because it has fared barely in Old Mysuru, he added. If you see the focus of the BJP is heavy on the Old Mysuru Region. This is because the party leadership has realised that they are doing reasonably well in the Mumbai-Karnataka region, but the Old-Mysuru region is pulling them back.

If one looks at the elections from the 1980s, a time when there were competitors for the Congress, whoever has becoming the rule party has had this regional balancing, Dr. Shastri says.

In 1985, Ramakrishna Hegde's Janata Party got a majority because it performed well in Old Mysuru, Mumbai-Karnataka and Hyderabad-Karnataka. The same was the case for the Janata Dal in 1994. The Congress put up a good show in 1989, 1999 and 2013 because it did well in these regions. In a nut shell it is important for any party to perform well in these regions, in order to cross the half-way mark.