Karnataka elections: The Yediyurappa factor

The BJP has been heavily dependant on the Lingayat votes in Karnataka. This year would be no different, but the BJP has an additional strategy in mind

New Delhi, Jan 31: B S Yediyurappa remains a central figure in Karnataka politics and more importantly in the BJP.

When he was asked to step down as the Chief Minister of Karnataka, there was talks that the party may see a split or the Lingayats, which is one of the main vote banks of the BJP may move away from the saffron party.

Yediyurappa is 80 years old and the BJP wanted to put in plan a succession plan with a younger leader. The party is yet to find the right replacement for Yediyurappa and would depend heavily on his charisma to win the elections scheduled to be held in May this year.

When he was asked to step down, many predicted a repeat of what happened when he was the CM post the 2008 elections. Yediyurappa was asked to step down as the CM, following the Lokayukta report on illegal mining in the state. At that time, he split the party and went on to form the KJP.

By 2014, Yediyurappa was back in the BJP and helped the party put up a good show in Karnataka when the parliamentary elections were held. In 2019, he led the party during the campaign and ended up as the single largest party. The party however fell short of a majority and had to wait a couple of months for the Congress-JD(S) government to collapse. With the support of the rebels, the BJP formed the government in Karnataka with Yediyurappa as Chief Minister.

However after being asked to step down, the BJP handled BSY well and placated him to the Parliamentary Board of the BJP.

BSY has however insisted that he wants his son, B Y Vijayendra to contest from his seat in Shikaripura. The party top leadership is however tight-lipped about the same. BSY's second son, B Y Raghavendra is a sitting MP from Shivamogga, while BSY himself is an MLA. The BJP's top leadership which is not in favour of dynasty politics wants to stay clear of this factor in Karnataka and hence is tight-lipped when it comes to Vijayendra.

A twist:

The question now is whether Vijayendra would be given a ticket or not. BSY has made it clear that he will not contest the elections, thus indicating that the last one he contested was in 2019. This would well pave the way for his son to get a ticket, but the BJP is well known for the surprises it throws.

While speaking with reporters in Belagavi, BSY said while he will not contest the elections, this in no way would mean that he is quitting active politics. I have decided not to contest because I am 80 years old, but I shall travel the length and breadth of Karnataka to work for the party and ensure that the BJP returns to power.

Yediyurappa also went on to state that both his sons are travelling across the state.

On the question of ticket distribution, BSY made it clear that it would be done after two rounds of surveys. He also predicted 140 seats for the BJP in the elections that are likely to be held in May this year.

The Lingayat factor:

The Lingayats who are a religious and social group are primarily concentrated in the northern and central regions of the state. For years now they have demanded for recognition of Lingayats as a separate religion.

The Lingayats account for around 17 to 18 per cent of the population and their votes are extremely important for the BJP to come to power.
Hence the elevation of Yediyurappa to the party's Parliamentary Board is seen as a move to soothe the Lingayats after he was asked to step down as CM.

The importance of the Lingayats in Karnataka is such that so far 22 chief ministers of Karnataka are from that community.

Angering the Lingayats is not an option for any party. In 1990, then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi had unceremoniously announced the ouster of then CM, Veerendra Patil, a Lingayat. Since then the votes of the Lingayats has turned to the BJP and Yediyurappa only strengthened that further. When Yediyurappa launched the KJP ahead of the 2013 elections, he went on to bag 10 per cent of the Lingayat votes as a result of which the BJP was reduced to the third place.

The strategy of the BJP will be slightly different today. The party does not want to only depend on the Lingayat votes. This dependancy has largely made the other dominant community, the Vokkaligas vote for the JD(S)S and Congress. While the BJP has been the largest party thrice in the state, it has always missed the majority mark.

It was in this context that Union Home Minister and senior BJP leader Amit Shah had said that if the BJP had to become the largest party, it needs to win big in the Old Mysuru Region, which is dominated by the Vokkaligas. The party on the other hand is looking up to Yediyurappa to retain the Lingayat votes, while also making an additional push in the Vokkaliga dominated belts.