Jan ki Baat opinion poll predicts big win for BJP in Tripura

In 2018, the BJP ended the 25 year old rule of the CPI (M) to form the government in the northeastern state of Tripura

New Delhi, Feb 14: With all eyes on the elections in Tripura slated to be held on February 16, an opinion poll has predicted that the BJP would return to power in the northeastern state.

Elections in Tripura are being held to elect 60 MLAs to the Legislative Assembly. The Jan ki Baat opinion poll says that the BJP which in the last elections had ended the 25 year old Left rule, would retain control of the state.

The survey conducted with a sample size of 10,000 people across all districts of the state predicted a comfortable return to power for the Manik Saha led BJP. The survey predicts 30-35 seats in the elections, while the CPI (M)-Congress combination could get 13-16 seats. The Congress which had fought the elections in 2018 own its own had drawn a blank.

The Tipraha Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance, also called Tipra Motha may win 13-11 seats, the survey predicted. The Tipra Motha is advocating for a Greater Tipraland, which would seen the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council and some adjacent areas become a separate state from Tripura.

In terms of vote share, the Jan ki Baat opinion poll says that the may get 42-39 per cent. The CPM+ would end up with 41 to 38 per cent, while the Tipra Motha may get 16-21 per cent, the poll predicted. In the case of others, the survey says that the vote share would be at around 1-2 per cent.

The survey predicts that the BJP would bag 3 of the 6 seats in North Tripura District. It also predicted that the BJP would end up with 4 of the 9 seats in Siphaijala district and 4 of the 7 sats in South Tripura district. It Alsop said that the BJP would bag 3 of the 6 seats in the Dhaka district, 2 out of 5 in Uninakoti district, 4 of the 6 sats in Khowa district and 10 of the 14 seats in West Tripura district. The survey also said that the BJP will bag 3 of the 7 seats in the Gomati district.

60 per cent of the Bengali Hindus favour the BJP coming to power, while 70 per cent of the Bengali Muslims will back the CPI(M) alliance the poll also predicted.

Breaking down the vote share for the Tipra Motha, the survey says that it would bag the maximum tribal votes, The Debarma tribe in the state has extended support to the party and it could bag 75 per cent of these votes, the survey said. 55 per cent of the Tripuri tribe would be backing the BJP the poll also predicted.

Jan ki Baat: 2018 poll:

In 2018, the NewsX Jan ki Baat opinion poll had said that the BJP led NDA could wing 35-45 seats. The CPI(M) was expected to win 14-23 of the 60 seats. The BJP went on to win 44 seats and formed the government under Biplab Kumar Deb. The CPI(M) bagged only 16 seats, while the Congress drew a blank.

About Tripura elections:

The elections in Tripura were held last in 2018. The state has a unicameral legislature with 60 seats. The main opposition party in Tripura is the Community Party of India (Marxist). The state is represented by two members in the Rajya Sabha, which is the Upper House of the Indian Parliament.

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