Is the Shivakumar-Siddaramaiah bonhomie only for the cameras?

If the JD(S) ends up winning 40 seats, then there is every chance that Karnataka would have a hung assembly. In the event of JD(S) supporting the Congress, who would become the CM?

The elections in Karnataka are round the corner and it promises to be a hotly contested battle.

The Congress believes that it is in with a good chance to win the state, but is facing stiff competition from the BJP.

Roaming the political corridors or small talk in the press club gives the indication that the Congress may be ahead, but what will hurt the party is the rift between former chief minister Siddaramaiah and KPCC president D K Shivakumar.

However despite reports of a rift, the two leaders have been putting up a united front. Both released a video in which they jointly released a statement of the party's three poll promises.

During the Bharat Jodo Yatra, Rahul Gandhi made a gesture showing the unity and solidarity in the party ranks. He walked holding the hands of both leaders.

These instances of solidarity look good on camera. But the fact is that both are being the post of chief minister if the party comes to power in the all-important state of Karnataka.

Is the rift over:

However within the Congress many believe that the rift is over and there is a consensus between the two leaders. The rise of Mallikarjuna Kharge as Congress president is another factor that has eased tensions between the two leaders, reports say. Both of them were told by Kharge to prioritise the election and worry about the CM's post later.

The All India Congress Committee, Karnataka in-charge, Randeep Surjewala is aware that he needs to keep things tight. He is well aware that this rift could cost the party the elections. Looking at the hold the Congress has over the rest of the country, the party is aware that its best chance is in Karnataka. Surjewala made it clear that the campaign was more important than personal ambitions.

Both leaders have their own strengths. Shivakumar has a strong influence in Bengaluru, the rural constituencies that surround the city. He has also made his presence felt in Ballari and Belagavi. Siddaramaiah on the other hand draws support from the minority and Backward Class voters.

Selection of candidates:

The problem for the Congress would be in the 50 odd constituencies in the state, where the loyalties to the two leaders are different. These 50 seats could well decide the elections for the Congress and if the two leaders are not able to iron out differences in the selection of candidates, the Congress could be in trouble.

Ultimately it would boil down to how many MLAs support these leaders and that could well decide who the chief minister would be if the Congress came to power.

A BJP leader who did not want to be named tells OneIndia that this is a factor that will majorly affect the Congress. It is all hunky-dory on the camera, but in reality there is stiff fight for the top post. However for that the Congress needs to win the election first. We are confident that we will return to power, the leader also said.

Another report said that the screening committee has asked the Congress Election Committee to decide on the candidates in disputed constituencies.

After four days of deliberations, both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar have failed to reach a consensus on the names of candidates in around 50 constituencies. In these 50 seats, the supporters of both the leaders are in the fray. Both leaders are reportedly not ready to withdraw their respective candidates, thus resulting in a stalemate, the report also said.

The JD(S) factor:

If the Janata Dal (S) led by former chief minister, H D Kumaraswamy manages to get 40 seats in the elections, then it the verdict would more or less be hung.

In this scenario, if the Congress seeks the help of the JD(S) to form the government like it did the last time, then both Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah can forget about the chief minister's chair.

There is a rivalry between Shivakumar and Kumaraswamy and the latter would never agree to the former being made the chief minister. The JD(S) would also never agree to Siddaramaiah being the CM, because he had left the party a few years back to join the Congress.

In case, the Congress reaches out to the JD(S) to form the government, then the best case scenario would be that Kumaraswamy will become the chief minister, like he did the last time.