Is 2029 The Last Chance For BJP And PM Modi? Pradeep Gupta Warns 20-Year Political Cycle Could Turn

Top psephologist and Axis My India founder Pradeep Gupta on Wednesday said the Bharatiya Janata Party's current political dominance could continue for at least two decades, provided its governance standards do not weaken significantly. Drawing comparisons with the Congress era of uninterrupted rule after Independence, Gupta suggested India may once again be witnessing a prolonged phase of one-party dominance in national politics.

Gupta, whose Axis My India exit polls have accurately predicted several major election outcomes in recent years, shared his views while assessing the BJP-led NDA government's long-term prospects.

Pradeep Gupta Draws Parallel With Congress Era

Explaining his assessment, Gupta referred to the Congress party's long spell in power before 1977 and said Indian politics often moves in long political cycles.

"Earlier, Congress ruled continuously till 1977. After that, it started facing difficulties. In those days, we used to talk about a political generation lasting around 20 years. That 20-year cycle will remain even now," PTI quoted Gupta as saying.

According to him, the BJP's current phase of political dominance, which began in 2014 under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, could similarly remain intact for an extended period if the party continues to deliver strong governance.

Gupta also pointed out that his projections are closely linked to public perception of performance and governance rather than electoral arithmetic alone.

BJP Must 'Super Perform' To Retain Public Trust

While expressing confidence in the BJP's continued strength, Gupta cautioned that the party now faces far higher expectations after repeatedly securing strong mandates from voters.

"After receiving such a massive mandate, expectations from the BJP have also increased. So the BJP and the NDA will now have to super perform," he said.

He added that the ruling alliance's future success would depend entirely on how effectively it governs over the coming years.

"Till the time their performance does not become weak or poor, they will keep winning and the opposition will keep losing," Gupta added.

According to Gupta, public expectations naturally rise when a party remains dominant for a long period, making sustained performance even more critical.

Congress Still Facing Impact Of 'Legacy Issues'

Gupta also spoke about the Congress party's current political struggles and said the opposition still faces challenges in rebuilding trust among voters.

In his view, perceptions linked to what he described as "legacy issues" from past governance continue to affect the party's recovery efforts.

"Even if you talk about 2029, it would mean around 15 years (out of power for Congress). I feel it may take at least five more years for them to convince the entire country," he was quoted as saying.

He suggested that rebuilding credibility at the national level is a long-term process and cannot happen immediately.

Rising Expectations Could Become BJP's Biggest Challenge

Despite predicting a prolonged phase of BJP dominance, Gupta noted that political success often carries its own risks. He observed that as parties reach greater heights, voter expectations also rise sharply.

"When you reach great heights, there is also a tendency to come down later. BJP has also reached that stage where expectations from it have risen," he said.

Gupta's remarks come at a time when the BJP continues to remain the central force in Indian politics, while opposition parties are attempting to strengthen alliances and expand their reach ahead of future elections.