India losing the plot on China by making the same old mistakes

China has continued to grow its influence in India’s neighbourhood by increasing its strategic presence in countries in the area, and New Delhi has to take its share of the blame for it.

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi took over in 2014, the hope of change was not only on the domestic front but also foreign. Yet in the last three years as China under its President Xi Jinping has turned from an approach of accommodation towards other countries to that of expansion in the world, India has for all intents and purposes been unable to counter it.

It is in this background that India has recently taken two tough decisions when it comes to China. The first with its army taking a tough stand in the Doklam region against their Chinese counterparts, and the other which can also be seen as a consequence of this, the government is reported to be close to rejecting a takeover of an Indian company by a Chinese one.

Though the supporters of the current government might back both these steps, the reality is that the bravado being displayed for the first and subsequent retaliation with the second, bring out the problem of how India views its relationship with China and what success means when it comes to it. And this is where the Indian governments, of both the past and present, have either missed the point or ignored it on purpose.

As while big statements and some military and economic actions might boost the morale of the country's public and government, they take the focus away from the real competition in terms of economic power and strategic military advantage due to it, that China has already amassed and continues to do so. Falling behind in this respect would go far in diminishing India's chances in case of an escalation in tensions between the two in the future.

China's strategic offensive

The first major area where India seems to have missed the opportunity to counter the Chinese is to protect its immediate neighbourhood from the growing influence of China. This becomes clear from the examples of the latest news of China taking over the operations of the Hambantota port, constructed by it in Sri Lanka, on a 99-year lease. And this is not an isolated development.

Other countries where China has similar plans are the Gwadar port in Pakistan, Kyaukpyu in Myanmar among others. Along with these, investments in infrastructure projects in these countries and the roping in of most of India's neighbours in its ambitious Bolt and Road (B&R) initiative, is another major step that China has taken to establish its foothold in the area.

The fact that various governments signed such contracts even though strong and wide-ranging protests, over Chinese intentions, have taken place in countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka, show the clout that the country enjoys over other administrations.

The protest comes from the understanding that the steps by China are by no means just a goodwill gesture. They are instead a part of a well thought out strategy, as can be seen from the terms of conditions and the rate at which loans or credit are provided, which are extremely high compared to bodies like the World Bank or other international ones. With the expectation that when these countries are unable to repay the amount owed, the transfer of the project and land would be the next logical step, which will ensure a long presence for the Chinese in India's immediate vicinity

As was made clear by Global Times, one of China's official publications, which stated earlier, "it should be made clear that the B&R is not a charity program, and most projects under the initiative are reciprocal, rather than aid."

Such facts and thinking thought of in terms of soon to be or already confirmed infrastructure and port projects in different countries, clearly does not bode well for India, with there being little doubt that such a presence will eventually involve that of its military as well.

India's past missteps

However, it would be a mistake, by those in India, to think of the ability of its main competitor to make such giant leaps as a submission or fault of India's other neighbours.

While Pakistan's choice of siding with Beijing can be seen as a logical step given the strained relationship between India and Pakistan, it is the Indian government's short comings, intentional or otherwise, that have led to the decisions by countries in the Indian subcontinent. For example, the Hambantota port was first offered to India but after New Delhi showed little interest in taking it up, China moved in to fill the gap.

On top of this India's less than expected performance and constant delays in completing the port project that it has in the country's town of Kankesenthurai also shows India's missteps in its outreach. Another famous example is the unilateral increase in the interest rates for the billion-dollar line of credit extended to Bangladesh from one to 1.75 per cent.

So while critics have talked about the steps taken by China for the strategic encirclement of India using the "String of Pearls" policy, where it uses its deep pockets to invest highly in India's neighbouring countries. The bottom line clearly points to the problem in New Delhi's limited economic power, as even though the Indian economy might be growing faster than China's, the fact remains that China's GDP is five times that of India and its spending on the military four times larger.

This is not helped by India's high trade deficit with China, which has been to former's detriment with China exporting to it goods worth much more value than it imports from it. Even the nature of goods traded has been stated by experts as being a problem for India with China importing raw materials while exporting finished goods. And as of yet, there have been no signs of things changing anytime soon.

Modi government faring no better

While India has continued to lose out to China in its own vicinity in terms of geopolitics and strategy, its trade deficit has remained alarmingly high at more the 50 billion dollars as of the last financial year.

So instead of harping on a step or two when it comes to military action or taking retributory and random decisions against a Chinese firm following the Doklam standoff makes little sense.

As can be seen by the reports that Shanghai Fosum Pharmaceutical Group's acquisition of India's Gland Pharma, which would have been the biggest ever Chines acquisition in India, is close to being rejected by the Indian government. This clearly shows that the present government continues to have a myopic view that past Indian administrations have had when it comes to the issue of how to deal with China.

Especially since the decision makes little sense given that these Chinese firms are active in fields considered more strategically important such as communication, electricity manufacturing equipment etc., as well as it goes against trying to get more of the income from the trade surplus back to India.

This along with the failure of the current government's foreign policy which has been centered around the personal diplomacy of the Prime Minister, have gone on to show that various governments have failed to learn from past mistakes and the lens through which they continue to see the competition with China makes tangible strategic movement in its respect not only difficult but will also place India at a disadvantage in case relations between the two neighbors turn sour in the future.

And instead of trying to shore up the country's economic capabilities and using resources to enhance its own geopolitical standing and military capabilities, with more investments and using islands in the Indian ocean to set up bases, the reality though seems to be that while China will go on flexing its muscles in the subcontinent and around the world, India will continue to tackle the issue the same old way and repeating the same old mistakes.

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