India Likely To Face Weak Monsoon In 2026 as IMD Forecasts Below-Normal Rainfall

India is expected to receive below-normal rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon season, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The initial forecast suggests that the country may receive around 92% of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall, raising concerns for agriculture and water availability.

What the Forecast Says

At a press briefing, senior officials including M Ravichandran and Mrutyunjay Mohapatra explained that the monsoon between June and September is likely to remain below normal.

The IMD defines "normal" rainfall as between 96% and 104% of the long-term average. Since the forecast stands at 92%, it falls below this range. The long-period average rainfall for the season is about 87 cm, based on data from 1971 to 2020.

Why Rainfall May Be Lower

Experts pointed to several climate factors influencing the monsoon this year. Weak La Niña-like conditions are currently shifting towards neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean.

At the same time, neutral conditions are also present in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

Climate models suggest that a positive IOD may develop later in the season, which could support rainfall to some extent. However, the possibility of El Niño conditions developing during the monsoon could negatively impact rainfall.

Officials said these mixed signals from global climate systems are the main reason behind the below-normal forecast.

Monsoon Timeline in India

The southwest monsoon typically arrives in Kerala around June 1 and gradually covers the rest of the country. It usually begins to withdraw by mid-September.

The monsoon plays a crucial role in India's economy, especially for agriculture, as a large part of farming depends on seasonal rainfall.

Forecast to Be Updated in May

This is the first-stage forecast issued by IMD for the 2026 monsoon. An updated and more detailed forecast will be released in the last week of May, which will provide region-wise predictions and a clearer picture of rainfall distribution.

How IMD Makes Monsoon Predictions

The IMD uses a combination of advanced forecasting methods, including both statistical and dynamic models. These include the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) system and global climate models under the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System.

The forecasting process is done in stages. The first forecast gives an overall estimate for the country, while later updates provide more detailed regional and monthly predictions.

A below-normal monsoon can affect crop production, water supply, and rural incomes, making it an important development for policymakers and farmers alike.

While the situation may change with updated forecasts, the current prediction highlights the need for careful planning and monitoring in the months ahead.