In 40 yrs, no govt has been re-elected in Karnataka, Can Bommai break the jinx

It is been 37 years and no ruling party has been able to retain power at consecutive elections.

As poll battle heats up in Karnataka only months away, it has literally been a race against time for Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, who hopes to retain power for the second term.

As he looks to lead the party in the assembly polls, due before May next year, and break decades old jinx of no party in government retaining power in the state (since 1985).

It is been 37 years and no ruling party has been able to retain power at consecutive elections.

If not anti-incumbency, even those that had governed effectively were rejected. Also, the state of Karnataka has always been a breathing ground for unstable governments.

It is a provan fact that in the Karnataka Assembly elections, caste plays a major factor.All parties are into caste engineering and the BJP would bank on the Hindu and Lingayat votes and the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The communities that make the biggest difference in the state are the Vokkaligas and Lingayats. The two castes have accounted for 50 per cent of the MLAs and MPs and this is irrespective of any party in power.

Can Bommai break the jinx?

Bommai has said that the BJP in Karnataka will go before the people for 2023 assembly elections with positive politics and its report card on good governance.

The development agenda is crucial for the party ahead of polls in the state, as communal narrative has partly overshadowed its works, amid flare-up in divisive issues.

Communal issues linked to anti conversion legislation, hijab and halal controversy, row over ban on Muslim traders during temple fairs, Tipu Sultan and Savarkar row and use of loudspeakers at religious places, made headlines during the last one year under Bommai administration putting the government on the back-foot.

Political experts say, communal issues have overshadowed the developmental works of this government, and there is a need to bring it to the fore and tell it to the people about "our good work", as only emotive ones don't get votes in elections.

State contractors' association, writing to the Prime Minister complaining that they have to pay a 40 per cent commission to Ministers and legislators, rocked the government. This was followed by resignation of senior BJP leader K S Eshwarappa as Minister following the suicide of contractor Santosh Patil alleging demand for 40 per cent cut by his supporters.

Also allegations of Bitcoin scam, PSI recruitment scam, which saw AGDP rank official being arrested, has put the government in the dock, as it also faced the ire from a section of educationists, thinkers and writers regarding revision of school textbooks and allegations of "saffronisation of education" as per RSS agenda.

Against the general feeling that existed when he took over, Bommai in a way has managed to make it clear that he is able to run the government coming out of the shadows of his predecessor Yediyurappa, by navigating the choppy waters of politics within the BJP, striking a balance between "old and new guard, natives and migrants" in the party.

Though there was some amount of unease among senior state leaders following the announcement by Union Home Minister Amit Shah last September that the party would face the next election under Bommai's leadership, the Chief Minister has been able to manage his position without any rebellion, despite facing some electoral defeats in his home district, as he enjoys strong backing from the high command.

Can Bommai break the trend? Only time will tell.