IMD Weather Forecast: IMD Predicts Rain, Landslides In Hilly Regions In September

India is expected to experience above-average rainfall in September, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting precipitation at 109% of the long period average (LPA). The LPA for September, based on data from 1971-2020, stands at approximately 167.9 mm. This prediction suggests that most regions will receive normal to above-normal rainfall, although some areas in Northeast and East India, as well as parts of extreme South Peninsular and northernmost India, might see below-normal rainfall.

IMD's Director General M Mohapatra has cautioned that the anticipated heavy rainfall could lead to cloudbursts, mudslides, and landslides. Authorities are advised to remain vigilant and prepared for such events. "We are anticipating good, above normal rainfall during the month. This can lead to episodic occurrence of cloudbursts, mudslides, landslides etc. Authorities should be prepared," Mohapatra stated.

Impact on Agriculture and Infrastructure

The predicted above-normal rainfall could benefit agriculture and water resources significantly. However, it also poses risks like flooding, landslides, transport disruptions, public health issues, and ecosystem damage. To mitigate these risks effectively, infrastructure must be reinforced. Utilising IMD's early warnings and enhancing surveillance are crucial steps. Additionally, establishing robust response systems in vulnerable sectors is essential.

In May 2025, IMD had forecasted that the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall would be 106% of the LPA with a model error margin of ±4%. During September 2025, day temperatures are expected to remain normal to below normal across many regions in west-central, northwest and south India. Conversely, east-central, east and northeast India may experience above-normal temperatures.

Temperature Variations Across Regions

Night temperatures in September 2025 are likely to be normal to above normal over most parts of India. However, some areas in northwest India and southern peninsular India might experience below-normal minimum temperatures. Currently prevailing neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the equatorial Pacific region are expected to persist until the end of the monsoon season.

The Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) forecasts suggest that temporary La Niña conditions might develop during October-November-December. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail over the Indian Ocean but weak negative IOD conditions may emerge towards the end of the monsoon season.

Monsoon Dynamics

El Niño events usually suppress rainfall by weakening monsoon winds and reducing moisture transport from oceans. In contrast, La Niña conditions enhance monsoon activity by strengthening pressure gradients driving monsoon circulation. Neutral ENSO conditions provide a favourable environment for normal monsoon performance without large-scale interference from Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies.

August witnessed significant rainfall activity with northwest India recording 265 mm of rain-the highest since 2001-and ranking as the 13th highest since 1901. The South Peninsula also experienced its third-highest rainfall since 2001 and eighth-highest since 1901 according to IMD data.

Recent Rainfall Trends

Since June 1st this year there has been a nationwide excess rainfall of 6.1%. Northwest India recorded an excess of 26.7%, while east and northeast India faced a deficiency of 17.8%. Central India saw an excess of 8.6%, with south peninsular India experiencing a surplus of 9.3%. Five active disturbances impacted northwest India in August leading to "active to vigorous" rainfall especially in Himalayan states during late August.

Mohapatra noted an increasing trend in September's rainfall since 1980 which has intensified over recent years due partly due interaction between western disturbances and monsoons during this transitional month: "September is a transitional month," he explained further adding that extensive heavy rains are expected over north central Indo-Gangetic plains within next two weeks.