IMD Predicts Above-Normal Rainfall In September; Flood Risks Higher, Bumper Harvests Expected

As India approaches the final month of the monsoon season, the country is set to experience a continuation of the above-normal rainfall that characterised August, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

In a virtual press conference, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra provided insights into the weather outlook for September, predicting widespread precipitation across most parts of India.

Photo Credit: PTI

Mohapatra announced that rainfall is expected to be more than 109% of the long-term average of 167.9 millimeters (6.6 inches) for September.

"Most parts of India are expected to receive above-normal rainfall in September," he stated, indicating that the monsoon's intensity will remain robust as the season draws to a close.

Impact on Agriculture and Economy

The above-average rainfall could have crucial positive implications for India's agricultural sector, particularly for crops such as rice and soybeans.

The IMD's forecast suggests that the increased precipitation will enhance soil moisture levels, which are crucial for crop growth and yield. This could pave the way for a bumper harvest, potentially stabilizing food supply and easing inflationary pressures in the economy.

According to a Bloomberg report, the expected higher crop yields could help mitigate food inflation, which saw a rise of 5.4% in July.

In turn, this might prompt the government to consider relaxing restrictions on rice and sugar exports, as ample domestic supplies could offset the need for stringent controls.

Additionally, the abundant rainfall is likely to boost water levels in major reservoirs, setting the stage for a strong winter crop season, with key crops such as wheat and rapeseed benefiting from the increased water availability.

Risks of Heavy Rainfall and Floods

However, the forecasted rainfall also brings concerns about potential natural disasters in certain regions. Mohapatra warned that parts of northwest India, including Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Rajasthan, and adjoining areas of Madhya Pradesh, could face "heavy to very heavy rainfall."

He emphasised the need for vigilance, noting that "there could be episodes of extremely heavy rainfall in these areas, potentially leading to floods."

The risks associated with such heavy rainfall extend to landslides, mudslides, and landslips, particularly in hilly terrains.

"We should remain cautious of landslides, mudslides, and landslips," Mohapatra advised, highlighting the need for preparedness in vulnerable regions.

Regional Disparities in Rainfall

While most of India is expected to benefit from the above-normal rainfall, some areas are forecasted to experience below-average precipitation.

These regions include the extreme northwest, parts of the southern peninsula, northern Bihar, northeastern Uttar Pradesh, and much of northeast India.

The drier conditions in these areas could adversely impact local agriculture and water resources, posing challenges for farmers and communities reliant on consistent rainfall.

The IMD anticipates that a low-pressure system will develop over the Bay of Bengal each week in September, driving significant rainfall across the country.

"We anticipate a low-pressure system developing over the Bay of Bengal each week of the month, which will result in significant rainfall across the country," Mohapatra added, underscoring the dynamic nature of the monsoon season and the importance of monitoring evolving weather patterns.