IMD July Rainfall Forecast: India Likely To Receive Below-Normal Rainfall At 94% Of LPA

The IMD July rainfall forecast predicts below-normal rainfall across most parts of India this month. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the country is likely to receive 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall in July, while some regions are expected to record normal to above-normal rain.

The Long Period Average rainfall for July is 280.4 mm.

IMD July Rainfall Forecast: Which Regions Will Receive More Rain?

According to the IMD, below-normal rainfall is likely across most parts of the country.

However, parts of northwest India, northeast India, east-central India and the eastern peninsular region are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

IMD Director General of Meteorology Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the rainfall pattern is likely to remain below normal across most of India except these regions.

Why Did India Receive Less Rain In June?

The IMD said India recorded 99.5 mm of rainfall in June, making it the fifth-lowest June rainfall since 1901.

The country witnessed a rainfall deficit of around 40 per cent, while Central India recorded the highest deficit at 50.4 per cent.

According to the weather department, five factors contributed to the weak monsoon during June.

An unfavourable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) reduced cloud formation that normally supports monsoon rainfall.

No low-pressure systems (LPSs) formed during the month. These weather systems usually pull moisture into the country and help increase rainfall.

The IMD also said most typhoon systems that developed during June moved towards the north-northwest, limiting the formation of weather systems over the Indian Ocean.

Another reason was the emergence of El Nino conditions, which are generally associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall in India.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in a neutral phase and is currently not helping offset the impact of El Nino.

Southwest Monsoon Likely To Advance Further

The IMD said weather conditions remain favourable for the southwest monsoon to advance over the next two to three days.

The monsoon is expected to cover the remaining parts of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Ladakh along with more areas of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.

It is also likely to advance into the entire Daman and Diu region, Jammu and Kashmir, most parts of Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab and some parts of Rajasthan.

IMD Forecasts Above-Normal Temperatures In July

The IMD has forecast above-normal maximum temperatures across most parts of India during July.

Only a few isolated areas in west-central India are likely to record normal to below-normal daytime temperatures.

Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain above normal across most regions. Some isolated pockets of Central and Northeast India may record normal minimum temperatures.