If Wishes Had Wings, Horses Could Fly. The NDA Is Strong: Opposition Has Lost

After having failed to prevent a third successive term to Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister, the opposition and its left-liberal echo system have launched a sinister design to create instability in the minds of the people that the Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government is short-lived.

At least three prominent leaders, Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and Shiv Sena leader (UBT) have said in recent days that the NDA government is fragile and it would not last full terms. Rahul Gandhi told a foreign newspaper that the numbers of the NDA make it a fragile coalition that would fall even at the smallest disturbance.

Raut said the NDA government was not stable and could fall anytime. "If Rahul Gandhi says they can make the government fall anytime, then there is a meaning to it", he said. Mallikarjuna Kharge who has been trying to give matured leadership despite handicap has joined the chorus. "The NDA government, spearheaded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, was formed by mistake and it will fall soon" he said.

The message coming from the echo system is their make belief assumption that the BJP would lose the coming assembly elections in Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand slated towards the close of this year. The term of Delhi legislative assembly expired in February 2025 and that of Bihar in November 2025. They are assuming that the NDA would lose these states and this will persuade the allies of the NDA to leave the alliance.

So, the task of Rahul Gandhi and his supporters is to keep attacking the NDA in general and Modi in particular to sustain the momentum. Recent statements of Rahul Gandhi whether on the stock market, on exam paper leaks appeared bizarre.

Let us now try to analyse the assumptions. To assume that the BJP would lose assembly elections is preposterous. Even the worst performance of Modi electorally is better than the combined performance of the entire opposition. The BJP on its own has won from 240 Lok Sabha seats where the entire INDIA alliance won from only 235. And pre-poll NDA alliance won from 290 Lok Sabha seats.

The real trend would be seen if we look at the assembly polls that witnessed simultaneous polls with the Lok Sabha. These were Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Sikkim. The NDA that contested the elections in Andhra Pradesh won a landslide by registering victory on 164 of the 175 seats. The Telugu Desam Party that led the alliance in the state won 135 of the 144 seats it contested and the Jana Sena Party won all the 21 seats it contested. The BJP won 8 of the 10. The results were spectacular.

The BJP on its own registered impressive victory in Odisha and brought down Navin Patnaik who was considered invincible. The party won from 78 seats of the 147 and formed its first government in the state. Arunachal Pradesh seemed to have developed a strong liking for the BJP and the party formed its third successive government in the state. It had won 10 seats of the 60 uncontested and won another 36 of the 50 that went for polls. In Sikkim, its old ally the Sikkim Kranatikari Morcha won 31 of the 32 seats. Its alliance with the BJP had broken off at the time of the elections. The BJP polled more than 5 per cent votes where the congress polled 0.32 per cent of votes which was less than the NOTA votes.

If one considers the performance of the BJP even in the states it could not do well, the percentage of votes polled would show a different story. Despite their best efforts, the INDIA alliance could not prevent Modi from becoming the Prime Minister. Now a chastised NDA is going to be more careful and dangerous. By the time Maharashtra goes for assembly polls political permutations and combinations cannot be ruled out.

At the worst, if the NDA loses Maharashtra, which looks difficult to say now, this would not make much of a difference and would be explained away as anti-incumbency since the NDA is in power there. The same will be the explanation for Haryana although the BJP is on stronger wickets in the state. In Jharkhand, the BJP is on a very strong wicket.

Imagining that allies would leave if the BJP loses two or three states is naïve. The NDA alliance was already in place when it went to the polls together. The performance in Bihar, where the alliance won 30 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats, would not have come without symbiotic unity in this alliance. Nitish Kumar has realised finally that his politics would not go well with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and he has more freedom to run the state government with the BJP as a partner than partnering with the RJD.

From the position he is in, both in terms of age and experience, he knows that sullying his image at this stage would not be the right bargain. On the one side is stability and progress and the other side is chaos and conflict. Nitish has got a golden opportunity to use his political leverage in the NDA to reshape Bihar to realise its potential. This would suit Modi's politics as well. This urge and cooperation were visible when Modi visited Nalanda on Wednesday to inaugurate the new campus. The way both leaders interacted and the way Nitish heaped encomiums on Modi showed that they both are enjoying the new equation.

TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu was a trusted member of the NDA alliance when Atal Behari Vajpayee was the Prime Minister. Had the NDA not lost 2004 Lok Sabha and drubbing for the TDP in assembly polls held simultaneously, the alliance would have continued. Defeat in 2004 lead to TDP leaving the alliance. But the TDP was unable to make much headway in Andhra politics and the Jagan government looked formidable. The TDP realised the virtue of aligning with the BJP and local party the Jana Sena Party founded by cine actor Pawan Kalyan. Naidu's main theme was to defeat Jagan's YSR Congress Party at the state level and prevent the Congress from staging a comeback at the Centre.

Naidu needs a matured and favourable government at the Centre that will understand the state's need. While Andhra Pradesh was split into Andhra Pradesh and Telangana in June 2014, the state's dream to have its own capital Amravati to match the best in other parts of the country has not been realised. The new government has renewed hopes of people and this was witnessed in substantial increase in real estate prices in Amravati as the TDP led NDA swept to power.

As during the Vajpayee regime, Naidu's interest this time too lies in state politics and a favourable government at the Centre. As chief minister of Andhra Pradesh from 1995-2004, he worked hard to convert Hyderabad into a hub of Information Technology. To have a matching capital now he would need his vision to get full cooperation from Modi. Stability is the key that the INDIA alliance can never promise. Also, one must not forget that Naidu's politics and that of the TDP is based on opposing the Congress or its variant.

The other two major partners the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde with seven Lok Sabha seats and the Lok Jan Shakti Party (LJP) led by Chirag Paswan with five Lok Sabha seats are in perfect harmony within the NDA. Chirag stayed with Modi even when he had to contest Bihar assembly elections on his own. He used to call himself Modi's Hanuman.

If political calculations are based on speculation and possibilities, then the possibility of the two factions of the Shiv Sena coming together and contesting elections with its saffron brother cannot be ruled out. And how can one rule out the DMK not joining the NDA alliance knowing fully well that the INDIA alliance had nothing to offer to the state in terms of development. After all, the DMK was once a strong member of the NDA under Vajpayee.

This will, however, depend on the BJP's assessment whether after having polled substantial votes in Tamil Nadu, it was keen to earmark an independent course in the state during the assembly elections due in 2026. The party may well decide to share power with the DMK in the state and make the NDA stronger at the Centre.

To say that Modi would find it tough to run coalition government is not founded in reality. The three successive governments have been NDA governments despite the BJP having majority of its own. Modi is politically matured enough to tackle political demands and pulls and pressures that are inherent in any coalition. He is not Rahul Gandhi who would feed his people biscuits from the same plate he would feed his dog.