How deadly will the third wave of COVID-19 be? Hear it from the scientist

New Delhi, July 04: With the second wave of COVID-19 subsiding, the big question is how deadly is the third wave.

Professor Manindra Agarwal, who is working with the Sutra Model, the mathematical projection of the Covid-19 trajectory says that the the third wave may only see half the daily cases recorded during the second wave.

We have created three scenarios. One is optimistic one. In this, we assume that life goes back to normal by August, and there is no new mutant. Second is intermediate one. In this we assume that vaccination is 20% less effective in addition to optimistic scenario assumptions," he said in a tweet.

Third is pessimistic one. This has one assumption different from intermediate one: a new, 25% more infectious mutant spreads in August (it is not delta+, which is not more infectious than delta)," he also said.

We have created three scenarios. One is optimistic one. In this, we assume that life goes back to normal by August, and there is no new mutant. Second is intermediate one. In this we assume that vaccination is 20% less effective in addition to optimistic scenario assumptions, he further added.