How Cyclone ‘Biparjoy’ Will Impact Monsoon In India

Cyclone Biparjoy, formed over east-central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea is likely to intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm and move north-northwestwards in the next six hours, according to the India Meteorological Department.

The IMD, in its latest bulletin, warned of consequent harsh weather and sea conditions, with wind speeds potentially reaching 135-145 kmph, and gusting up to 160 kmph over the next three to four days.

According to the weather department, the cyclonic storm remained stationary for three hours, approximately 900 km west-southwest of Goa, 1020 km southwest of Mumbai, 1090 km south-southwest of Porbandar, and 1380 km south of Karachi.

On Wednesday, gale winds with speeds of 80-90 kmph, gusting up to 100 kmph, are likely to prevail over the east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining areas of the west-central and southeast Arabian Sea.

These winds may intensify to 95-105 kmph by evening, gusting up to 115 kmph in the same area. Therefore, the coasts of north Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, and adjoining areas of the west-central and south Arabian Sea are expected to be most impacted by the storm.

On June 8, the wind speeds are expected to increase further, reaching 115-125 kmph, gusting up to 140 kmph from the evening. Areas along the Karnataka, Goa, and Maharashtra coasts will experience strong winds.

By June 9, wind speeds may escalate to 135-145 kmph, gusting up to 160 kmph from the evening, affecting the adjoining areas of the South Arabian Sea, Karnataka, and the Goa-Maharashtra coasts.

On June 10, gale winds with speeds of 145-155 kmph, gusting up to 170 kmph, are predicted over the central Arabian Sea. The adjoining areas of the south Arabian Sea, as well as the coasts of north Karnataka, Goa, and Maharashtra, will also be impacted.

Cyclone Biparjoy Impact On Monsoon In India
With the arrival of the monsoon in Kerala already delayed, the weather department has predicted that the cyclonic Biparjoy is expected to critically influence the advance of the monsoon towards the Kerala coast.

However, the IMD is yet to give a tentative date for the arrival of the monsoon in Kerala while private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said it may happen on June 8 or June 9 with mild entry.

While the arrival of the monsoon is expected to be delayed by cyclonic activities, it does not mean that the monsoon will reach other parts of the country late.

According to scientists, the onset of monsoon will also not impact the total rainfall over the country during the season.

According to weather experts, cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea are intensifying rapidly and retaining their intensity for a longer duration due to climate change.

"The Arabian Sea witnessed a significant increasing trend in the intensity, frequency, and duration of cyclonic storms and very severe cyclonic storms during the 1982-2019 period," according to a study 'Changing status of tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean'.

"The increase in cyclone activity in the Arabian Sea is tightly linked to the rising ocean temperatures and increased availability of moisture under global warming. The Arabian Sea used to be cool, but now it is a warm pool," Roxy Mathew Koll, Climate Scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and Lead IPCC Author was quoted saying by PTI.

A study by researchers at the ST Radar centre of Cochin University revealed that the frequency of tropical cyclones prior to the monsoon onset has soared in the Arabian Sea while that over the Bay of Bengal has seen a decline in recent decades.

In the last four decades, there were 10 years in which cyclones formed in the Arabian Sea close to the onset phase of monsoon.

The study also revealed that Arabian Sea cyclones pull moisture towards the centre of the cyclone, which may result in the reduction of rainfall along the west coast.