Has Congress Gained Edge Over BJP in Madhya Pradesh Elections 2023? Here’s What New Survey Says

Madhya Pradesh is poised for a closely contested battle between the ruling Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) and the Congress, with the latter currently holding a slight advantage, according to the latest survey conducted by Times Now-ETG Research. If the elections were to be held at this moment, the Congress is expected to secure between 112-122 seats, while the BJP, despite its robust campaigning efforts, is projected to win 107-115 seats. Additionally, the survey suggests that other parties might capture 1-3 seats.

A detailed regional breakdown reveals that the Congress is poised for a strong showing in the Malwa Nimar region, with projections of 43-47 seats out of the 66 available. The BJP is expected to secure 18-22 seats in this area, while other parties may win a maximum of two seats.

Senior Journalist Milind Ghatwai believes that that the Malwa-Nimar region would most likely be the deciding factor for Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections 2023. In an opinion piece in India Today, he writes, " there is no palpable anger among farmers against the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government or visible excitement over the loan waiver again promised by the Congress in its manifesto released recently, but the region continues to remain crucial for both the parties because it will largely decide who gets the crown on 3rd December. Both parties have faced rebellion in many seats."

Furthermore, the Mahakaushal and Gwalior Chambal regions, the Congress and the BJP are anticipated to engage in a closely contested battle, with the Congress holding a slight edge over the BJP.

In Mahakaushal, the Congress is likely to secure 18-22 seats, while the BJP is projected to win 16-20 seats. Meanwhile, in the Gwalior Chambal region, the Congress is expected to secure 16-20 seats, slightly more than the BJP's estimated 14-18 seats.

The BJP, however, is forecasted to dominate the Madhya Bharat and Vindhya regions. In Madhya Bharat, the ruling party may secure 22-24 seats, while the Congress is expected to be limited to 12-24 seats. In the Vindhya region, the BJP is anticipated to win between 19-21 seats out of the 30 available, with the Congress projected to secure 8-10 seats. The Bundelkhand region is likely to witness a tight competition, with the BJP predicted to win 13-15 seats and the Congress projected to secure 11-13 seats.

If these projections materialize, it would represent a significant setback for the ruling BJP. The party had fielded seven Lok Sabha MPs, including three Union ministers, in an altered election strategy for the 17th November assembly polls. However, doubts have been raised about whether these high-profile candidates can overcome anti-incumbency and secure victory.

Some political analysts view the BJP's approach as being "high on optics but low on substance," interpreting it as an attempt to maximize gains by relying on prominent figures with broad appeal in specific regions of the state. Notably, the BJP nominated seven MPs, including three Union ministers-Narendra Singh Tomar, Prahlad Singh Patel, and Faggan Singh Kulaste-all seen as potential contenders for the Chief Minister's post, in the race for the 230-member Madhya Pradesh assembly.

In a surprising move, the ruling party also nominated BJP general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya, another potential CM candidate, for the Indore-1 assembly seat against the incumbent Congress MLA Sanjay Shukla.

According to the Times Now report, senior journalist and author Rasheed Kidwai opined that while the decision to field three Union ministers and four Lok Sabha MPs in state elections may appear impressive on paper, it hints at a sense of anxiety and urgency within the party.