Haryana Election Result 2024 Prediction: How State Defied Pollsters' Forecast In Past

With voting in Haryana concluding on Saturday evening, all eyes are now set on the exit poll predictions. The results will be announced on October 8.

The ruling BJP is vying for a third consecutive term in office, while Congress is aiming to reclaim power after a decade.

Likewise, the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections-the first in ten years-have sparked major anticipation, with a fierce contest emerging between both national and regional parties.

Past Exit Polls for Haryana Assembly Elections

BJP rose to power in Haryana in 2014, ending a decade of Congress rule. However, exit polls from that election somewhat underestimated the scale of BJP's victory, while they proved more accurate in their predictions for Congress.

Four exit polls at the time had suggested that the BJP would fall just short of the majority mark of 46 seats in the 90-seat Haryana Assembly, with projections placing the party's tally around 43 seats.

The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) was forecasted to take second place with 27 seats, while the Congress was expected to win just 13.

In reality, BJP slightly exceeded these predictions, winning 47 seats. Congress also surpassed expectations by securing 15 seats. On the other hand, the INLD's result fell well short of the forecast, managing only 19 seats-eight fewer than what the polls had anticipated.

Of the various exit polls, News 24-Chanakya and ABP News-Nielsen had predicted that the BJP would achieve a majority. Meanwhile, Times Now and India TV-CVoter had accurately forecasted Congress' final seat count, while News 24-Chanakya came closest to predicting the INLD's performance.

In the 2019 Haryana elections, however, most exit polls forecasted a landslide victory for BJP, with some predicting that the party could win over 70 seats. But the election resulted in a hung assembly, with no party managing to secure a majority.

Eight exit polls had estimated that the BJP would win approximately 61 seats, with Congress trailing behind at 18 seats. Yet the actual results told a different story: the BJP secured only 40 seats, while Congress exceeded expectations with 31 seats.

India Today-Axis was the only poll to predict that the BJP would fall short of a majority, forecasting a tally of 32-44 seats. It also came closest to estimating Congress's final result, predicting 30-42 seats for the party.

On average, the exit polls overestimated BJP's seat count by 21 and underestimated Congress' by 13 seats.