Study Predicts Over 39 Million Global Deaths from Antibiotic Resistance by 2050

Over a million people worldwide succumbed to antibiotic resistance annually between 1990 and 2021, with projections indicating over 39 million could die from such infections in the next 25 years, as per a global analysis published in The Lancet journal. The Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) Project highlighted that South Asia, including India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, is expected to witness the highest future deaths due to antibiotic resistance, with an estimated 11.8 million deaths between 2025 and 2050.

The study revealed that antibiotic resistance occurs when bacteria and fungi evolve to resist the effects of drugs designed to kill them. This resistance renders treatments ineffective. The researchers noted that deaths due to antibiotic resistance will also be significantly high in other parts of southern and eastern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

Impact on Different Age Groups

Between 1990 and 2021, deaths among individuals aged 70 years and above due to antibiotic resistance increased by more than 80%. This trend is expected to continue affecting older populations more in the future. Conversely, deaths among children under five years old due to antibiotic resistance decreased by over 50% during the same period.

Kevin Ikuta, an affiliate professor at the Institute of Health Metrics (IHME), University of Washington, US, and a collaborator on the GRAM Project, remarked on this achievement. He said, "The fall in deaths from sepsis—a bloodstream infection—and antibiotic resistance among young children over the past three decades is an incredible achievement. However, these findings show that while infections have become less common in young children, they have become harder to treat when they occur."

Future Projections and Necessary Actions

The threat posed by antimicrobial resistance to older populations will only grow as global populations age. Ikuta emphasised the urgency of addressing this issue now to protect people worldwide from antimicrobial resistance. Improved access to healthcare and antibiotics could potentially save up to 92 million lives between 2025 and 2050.

The study is the first comprehensive global analysis of antimicrobial resistance trends over time. Mohsen Naghavi from IHME underscored the importance of understanding these trends for making informed decisions to save lives. "An increasing resistance to antibiotics—one of the cornerstones of modern healthcare—is a major cause for concern," Naghavi stated.

Data and Methodology

The analysis utilised data from 520 million people across all ages in 204 countries and territories. This data was sourced from hospital records, death certificates, and information on antibiotic usage. The estimates covered 22 disease-causing pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations, and 11 infectious symptoms such as bloodstream infections.

In 2019 alone, deaths related to antibiotic resistance surpassed those caused by HIV/AIDS or malaria. Antibiotic resistance directly led to 1.2 million deaths and contributed to nearly five million more deaths that year, according to the first study by the GRAM Project published in 2022.

Understanding how trends in antimicrobial resistance deaths have evolved over time is crucial for devising strategies to combat this global health threat effectively.